# Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps

> At least 8bps leads at 92%, runner-up 92% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2yfomc
Updated: 2026-06-24T07:20:49.714Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-29

## Headline

- Leader: At least 8bps at 92%
- Runner-up: At least 4bps at 92%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $877

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 8bps | 92¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t8 |
| At least 4bps | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t4 |
| At least 6bps | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t6 |
| At least 10bps | 57¢ | −21pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t10 |
| At least 12bps | 24¢ | −35pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t12 |
| At least 15bps | 16¢ | −32pp | $393 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t15 |
| At least 18bps | 6¢ | −38pp | $349 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t18 |
| At least 20bps | 4¢ | −27pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-absolute-difference-between-the-federal-r-kalshi-kx2yfomc-26jul29-t20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 8bps | At least 4bps | At least 6bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | 59 | 73 | 66 |
| 2026-06-22 | 72 | 77 | 72 |
| 2026-06-23 | 83 | 87 | 86 |
| 2026-06-24 | 83 | 87 | 86 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · At least 18bps −38pp 45→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least 12bps −35pp 55→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · At least 15bps +34pp 14→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · At least 18bps +34pp 11→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least 15bps −32pp 48→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve's 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield will shift by at least 10 basis points between July 28 and July 29, 2026. Daily moves of this magnitude are historically uncommon in Treasury yields outside of major economic announcements or policy shifts. The market is pricing in moderate expectations for volatility during this specific window. The resolution depends on actual Federal Reserve data releases and any scheduled economic indicators published on or before July 29. Key drivers include whether the Fed issues policy communications, inflation reports, or employment data between these dates that could trigger significant market repricing. The low trading volume suggests limited market participation, which may reflect uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential catalysts rather than consensus conviction.

### Key factors

- Historical daily moves in 2-year Treasury yields exceed 10bps in roughly 5-15% of trading days absent major announcements, providing a baseline frequency reference
- The 1-week window (July 28-29) falls before typical month-end positioning and re-hedging flows that often concentrate volatility
- Contract pricing shows declining probability as thresholds increase (60% at 10bps, 29% at 12bps, 13% at 15bps), indicating markets view large moves as plausible but not likely
- Zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi contracts suggests minimal speculative positioning, reducing the probability of coordinated trading-driven moves
- Any unscheduled Fed communications, inflation surprises, or geopolitical shocks would be the primary mechanism for achieving 10bps+ moves within a single trading day

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/2yfomc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=2yfomc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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