# Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027

> 5.34% or above leads at 96%, runner-up 90% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/30yrdirhm
Updated: 2026-09-20T15:20:49.908Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 5.34% or above at 96%
- Runner-up: 5.35% or above at 90%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.34% or above | 96¢ | +2pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-533-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.33 |
| 5.35% or above | 90¢ | −39pp | $261 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-534-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.34 |
| 5.4% or above | 80¢ | −27pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-539-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.39 |
| 5.39% or above | 79¢ | −32pp | $731 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-538-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.38 |
| 5.36% or above | 76¢ | −7pp | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-535-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.35 |
| 5.37% or above | 73¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-536-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.36 |
| 5.41% or above | 72¢ | −36pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-540-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.40 |
| 5.42% or above | 70¢ | −33pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-541-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.41 |
| 5.43% or above | 66¢ | −24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-542-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.42 |
| 5.44% or above | 64¢ | −24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-543-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.43 |
| 5.45% or above | 58¢ | ±0 | $258 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-544-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.44 |
| 5.46% or above | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-545-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.45 |
| 5.5% or above | 44¢ | −3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-549-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.49 |
| 5.53% or above | 39¢ | −3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-552-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.52 |
| 5.54% or above | 33¢ | −18pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-553-by-jan-kalshi-kx30yrdirhm-27jan01h-t5.53 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 5.34% or above | 5.35% or above | 5.4% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 88 | 85 | 72 |
| 2026-09-19 | 90 | 46 | 45 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · 5.35% or above −39pp 85→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.41% or above −36pp 69→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.42% or above −33pp 66→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.39% or above −32pp 75→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 5.4% or above −27pp 72→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 96% probability that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will close at or above 5.29% on January 1, 2027—roughly 103 days away. The tight clustering of contract prices (83¢ to 96¢) indicates strong consensus that yields will remain elevated, though meaningful disagreement persists on whether they'll exceed 5.35%. The probability is primarily driven by current yield levels and expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy through year-end. The primary uncertainty revolves around whether inflation data, employment reports, and Fed communications between now and December will sustain current rate levels or spark a decline. No single scheduled event determines this outcome; rather, cumulative economic data releases and Fed communications through December will influence whether the 30Y yield drifts lower or stabilizes above 5.29%.

### Key factors

- The 30Y Treasury yield closed above 5.29% on multiple recent trading days, making a sustained breakout below that level the primary path to market resolution against the 96% pricing
- The next 100 days will include at least three CPI reports, multiple jobs reports, and Fed communications; a significant inflation surprise downward or recession signal could pressure yields lower
- The implied probability gradient shows 83% conviction at 5.35% but 96% at 5.29%, indicating that market participants view the 5.29–5.35% range as the critical zone where uncertainty concentrates
- Current 30Y yield levels reflect Fed policy expectations; any material shift in terminal rate guidance or inflation outlook could shift the probability outside the current range
- Liquidity in the 5.35%+ contract ($200 daily volume) is significantly higher than runner-up contracts, suggesting active disagreement among traders on whether yields will push into the upper bound

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/30yrdirhm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=30yrdirhm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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