# Will UST Par Yield Curve (3M) for Q2 2026 be above 3.50%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/3mtbill
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.413Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.00% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-3m-for-q2-2026-be-above-4-kalshi-kx3mtbill-26jun30-t4.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 21 |
| 2026-04-22 | 3 |
| 2026-04-29 | 3 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether the 3-month US Treasury yield will trade above 3.50% during the second quarter of 2026. Currently priced at 21%, the market indicates a low probability of this occurring. Treasury yields are primarily driven by Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. The main factors influencing this prediction are the Fed's interest rate decisions through Q2 2026 and incoming economic data on inflation and employment. The May 2026 Consumer Price Index release and any Federal Open Market Committee announcements will be key drivers of market expectations. If inflation remains elevated or the Fed signals higher rates, yields could rise above 3.50%; conversely, economic weakness or Fed rate cuts would likely keep yields below this level. The contract resolves based on actual 3-month Treasury yields during April-June 2026.

### Key factors

- Federal Reserve policy stance and any rate decisions announced during Q1-Q2 2026
- Inflation data releases, particularly CPI and PCE readings, relative to Fed targets
- Employment data and economic growth indicators that influence Fed expectations
- Market expectations for rate cuts or holds, reflected in Fed funds futures contracts
- Geopolitical or financial events that could create flight-to-safety demand for Treasury securities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/3mtbill
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=3mtbill

## License

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