# 3rd largest company end of April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 18 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/3rd-largest-company-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:06:00.532Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 55% / Polymarket 36% — 19pp spread
- 24h volume: $82K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 23¢ | −1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-june-alphabet-polymarket-0x416242cc0757f9d4aefdfe86893cea90610b3d0928c60e09416e717db7e9f0f0 |
| NVIDIA | 72¢ | +4pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-june-nvidia-polymarket-0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95 |
| Alphabet | 38¢ | +7pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-alphabet-polymarket-0x39676b9161ea372b38115423a5de8f700f1888c35dd0fb2be07d96510ec28f7c |
| NVIDIA | 53¢ | −6pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-nvidia-polymarket-0x684e5b72d4e407695397a79ed75ef37273c2655ca2548791a4153233d3744696 |
| OpenAI | 5¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| SpaceX | 3¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-spacex-polymarket-0xa226daf1b12a3c4f7ff6c71c4cf6cd1e51d31833ff49a67210ed81db5a813574 |
| Anthropic | 69¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| Google | 24¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| Apple | 8¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-apple-polymarket-0x55a5a4b50b7947482e95af8f638fa0b8d9a46740c5cd04c6799443e83565176a |
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Above 2.5% | 92¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-25-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.5 |
| Above 3.7% | 31¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.7 |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Above 3.8% | 7¢ | ±0 | $732 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-38-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.8 |
| Anthropic | 69¢ | −1pp | $256 | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| Above 3.4% | 95¢ | ±0 | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-34-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.4 |
| Above 2.6% | 66¢ | ±0 | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-26-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.6 |
| Above 3.5% | 84¢ | ±0 | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-35-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 38 |
| 2026-04-19 | 42 |
| 2026-04-26 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Above 3.4% −25pp 94→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Above 3.4% +25pp 69→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Alphabet +19pp 12→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Alphabet −15pp 31→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · SpaceX +13pp 3→16¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=3rd-largest-company-april

## License

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