# 3rd largest company end of May

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/3rd-largest-company-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.251Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 3¢ | +3pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/3rd-largest-company-end-of-may-alphabet-polymarket-0xd87f2f83f286d6fa2bee0ab9952f77cae03cea3656d419c7e75a9ae31949991e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 3 |
| 2026-05-13 | 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | 8 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Alphabet +8pp 6→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Alphabet −8pp 13→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Alphabet −6pp 19→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Alphabet +5pp 14→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Alphabet +3pp 5→8¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Apple will be the third-largest company by market capitalization at the end of May 2026. Currently trading at 95%, this reflects strong confidence in Apple maintaining its position ahead of competitors like Alphabet. The high probability is driven by Apple's substantial market capitalization and historical stability in rankings. Movement in this market would primarily depend on significant market-cap changes among the top companies—either Apple declining substantially or competitors like Alphabet gaining ground rapidly. Major catalysts include earnings announcements, macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, or significant corporate developments. The May 31, 2026 close will definitively resolve the market based on official market-cap rankings at that date.

### Key factors

- Apple's current market cap relative to Alphabet and Microsoft as of mid-May 2026
- Earnings reports or guidance revisions from major tech companies before month-end
- Broad market movements and sector rotation affecting large-cap valuations
- Major acquisitions, capital allocation announcements, or regulatory developments impacting any top-5 company
- Volatility in tech stock prices during the final weeks of May affecting relative rankings

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/3rd-largest-company-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=3rd-largest-company-may

## License

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