# 3rd richest person on December 31

> Elon Musk leads at 36%, runner-up 34% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/3rd-richest-person-december-31
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.503Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Elon Musk at 36%
- Runner-up: Sergey Brin at 34%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 36¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-elon-musk-polymarket-0xb188fc35bbd00ad03717cceb0c289cb89a2cf71aedb68a05e028610289e73c28 |
| Sergey Brin | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-sergey-brin-polymarket-0x88cfcef8cd6ccfe509f6211e4c34f0b0e963833025e8bb14ae87bca2d3fcb23f |
| Larry Page | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-larry-page-polymarket-0xd10117db923a0ab1448d4670d691e9924151e1ba80baa2f132da94cf8f23f238 |
| Jeff Bezos | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-jeff-bezos-polymarket-0x6f87a9ce2b5e45a22317fd7809894d287925abd2f8d843e7cb75641435c7feba |
| Larry Ellison | 23¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-larry-ellison-polymarket-0xb44d403e1adad512cfab065fd2930b077fc38143fa27e0f13ba46bae67cc050c |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-mark-zuckerberg-polymarket-0x3e4b89b1628a68af23bc53f37959f0bf557fc1fe5d5fab6cc051a6c7272ca400 |
| Jensen Huang | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-jensen-huang-polymarket-0x7205ceb58e78f67cc32759e0beeb354410663e709520c9c1216a696904cab840 |
| Warren Buffett | 3¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-warren-buffett-polymarket-0x93db8555ac2f4c86908d4dc460ad113aaa01a001f82be5c219dfa10d0e361161 |
| Bernard Arnault | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31-bernard-arnault-polymarket-0xcc1e4603342d8ada7e7fca9fcc198b0fcd2a5e33d59896968a300e5ccf7e59b1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Elon Musk | Sergey Brin | Larry Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 14 | 33 | 26 |
| 2026-04-23 | 15 | 31 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 32 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 31 | 38 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 30 | 35 | 27 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Larry Ellison −17pp 37→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Mark Zuckerberg −14pp 26→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Bernard Arnault −13pp 28→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Elon Musk +11pp 19→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Larry Ellison +11pp 20→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Jeff Bezos will rank as the third-wealthiest person globally on December 31, 2026. The 38% probability sits between runner-up Sergey Brin at 35% and Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang each at 28%, indicating meaningful uncertainty about wealth rankings over the next eight months. Wealth positions depend primarily on stock market movements—particularly Amazon's share price for Bezos and other major holdings for competitors—as well as asset sales or acquisitions by these individuals. The final ranking will be determined by net worth calculations published by wealth tracking services on or near year-end 2026. Key drivers include whether Bezos continues Amazon shareholding patterns, whether tech stock valuations shift dramatically, and whether any billionaire executes major capital transactions affecting their portfolio composition.

### Key factors

- Amazon stock performance and Bezos's holdings changes between now and December 31, 2026
- Tesla, xAI, and Elon Musk's total assets relative to other candidates, as he currently leads richest-person forecasts at 89%
- Aggregate tech sector valuation shifts, which would affect Zuckerberg (Meta), Huang (Nvidia), and Brin holdings simultaneously
- Any major asset sales, acquisitions, or wealth transfers by Bezos or competing billionaires that would alter net worth calculations
- Methodology used by wealth tracking services in December 2026 for valuing private holdings and illiquid assets

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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