# Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31

> Above $1.54 leads at 22%, runner-up 21% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100max
Updated: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.160Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $1.54 at 22%
- Runner-up: Above $2.14 at 21%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.54 | 22¢ | −45pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-1.540 |
| Above $2.14 | 21¢ | −1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-2.140 |
| Above $2.29 | 21¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-2.290 |
| Above $1.99 | 20¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-1.990 |
| Above $2.44 | 16¢ | +4pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-2.440 |
| Above $1.39 | 13¢ | +31pp | $386 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-1.390 |
| Above $2.59 | 13¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-2.590 |
| Above $1.84 | 6¢ | +13pp | $994 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-1.840 |
| Above $1.69 | 4¢ | +2pp | $253 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100max-26dec31-1.690 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $1.54 | Above $2.14 | Above $2.29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 28 | 9 | 24 |
| 2026-06-23 | 22 | 23 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 20 | — | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 50 | 35 | 35 |
| 2026-07-08 | — | 14 | 12 |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 13 | 22 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Above $2.44 −68pp 87→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above $1.69 −48pp 55→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Above $1.39 +47pp 23→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Above $1.54 −45pp 95→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Above $1.99 +38pp 2→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU hourly rental pricing will exceed $1.84 by year-end 2026. The market currently assigns 96% odds to this outcome, though trading volume on the highest-price thresholds ($1.84 and $1.99) is very thin, suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability. The current trajectory and pricing structure for GPU compute capacity, ongoing demand from AI infrastructure buildout, and supply dynamics of enterprise-grade GPUs will determine whether costs rise to or exceed this level. Resolution depends on actual pricing offered by major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) on December 31, 2026. The wide gap between the heavily-traded lower thresholds ($0.04–$0.34, priced at 93–94%) and the headline contract suggests markets see strong probability of moderate price increases but much less certainty about reaching the highest specified tier.

### Key factors

- Current A100 SXM4 hourly pricing on major cloud platforms and historical price trajectory from June 2026 through December 2026
- Supply and demand dynamics for enterprise GPU capacity, including new GPU model releases and competitive alternatives to the A100 line
- Trading volume concentration at lower price thresholds ($0.04–$0.34) versus extremely thin volume at $1.84–$1.99, indicating disagreement about tail probabilities
- Definitional precision: which provider's official pricing, which region, and any volume discounts or contractual adjustments will be used for resolution
- Year-end 2026 cloud pricing announcements or contract terms from AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure that establish the reference price

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100max
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=a100max

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.