# Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.76 on Apr 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 8 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100mon
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:58.067Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $48K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chennai Super Kings | 4¢ | +1pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-chennai-super-kings-win-the-ipl-chennai-super-kalshi-kxipl-26-csk |
| Nate Diaz | 38¢ | −2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-diaz-win-the-diaz-vs-perry-professional-kalshi-kxufcfight-26may16diaper-dia |
| Mike Perry | 61¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-perry-win-the-diaz-vs-perry-professional-kalshi-kxufcfight-26may16diaper-per |
| Before 2027 | 18¢ | −2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-sovereign-wealth-fund-be-operational-b-kalshi-kxusfund-27 |
| Brad Raffensperger | 5¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-brad-raffensperger-be-the-republican-nominee-kalshi-kxgovganomr-26-br |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-roberto-snchez-palomino-finish-2nd-in-the-fir-kalshi-kxperupres2nd-26mar25-2-rpal |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 43¢ | +8pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tulsi-gabbard-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-kalshi-kxcabout-26apr20-tgab |
| AI | 10¢ | −3pp | $230 | kalshi | /markets/will-ai-be-time-person-of-the-year-in-2026-ai-kalshi-kxtime-26-ai |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 9 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Tulsi Gabbard −19pp 54→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tulsi Gabbard +8pp 35→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Tulsi Gabbard −7pp 56→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Nate Diaz +6pp 29→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Tulsi Gabbard +6pp 49→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU rental pricing will exceed $0.76 per hour as of April 30, 2026—a reference point for enterprise AI infrastructure costs. The 45% probability reflects uncertainty about cloud compute pricing trends in a competitive market. GPU rental rates depend primarily on supply dynamics (increased manufacturing capacity could lower prices) and demand patterns (adoption of newer architectures like H100/H200 might reduce A100 demand). The resolution date has already passed relative to today's date, suggesting this contract may have settled or is awaiting final pricing verification from major cloud providers. Historical pricing data and current spot rates from AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Current A100 SXM4 hourly pricing across major cloud providers (AWS, GCP, Azure) as of April 30, 2026
- Supply-side factors including NVIDIA production volumes and GPU inventory levels available for rental
- Demand migration to newer GPU architectures (H100, H200) affecting A100 utilization rates and pricing pressure
- Competitive pricing moves by cloud providers responding to market conditions in early 2026
- Official pricing documentation or invoicing records from major compute vendors for the April 30 reference date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100mon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=a100mon

## License

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