# Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in December 2026

> Above $0.75 leads at 77%, runner-up 49% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100ms
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.692Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.75 at 77%
- Runner-up: Above $1.00 at 49%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $866

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.75 | 77¢ | +10pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27feb-0.750 |
| Above $1.00 | 49¢ | ±0 | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27feb-1.000 |
| Above $1.00 | 42¢ | −26pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26jul-1.000 |
| Above $1.25 | 34¢ | +11pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26aug-1.250 |
| Above $1.50 | 20¢ | +16pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26aug-1.500 |
| Above $2.00 | 18¢ | +1pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26aug-2.000 |
| Above $1.50 | 14¢ | −19pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26sep-1.500 |
| Above $2.00 | 12¢ | +9pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27feb-2.000 |
| Above $1.75 | 11¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27jul-1.750 |
| Above $1.50 | 10¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26jul-1.500 |
| Above $1.75 | 10¢ | +4pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27feb-1.750 |
| Above $1.50 | 8¢ | −1pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26nov-1.500 |
| Above $1.75 | 8¢ | +6pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26nov-1.750 |
| Above $1.75 | 8¢ | −2pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27apr-1.750 |
| Above $1.75 | 4¢ | +8pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26oct-1.750 |
| Above $2.00 | 4¢ | +8pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27apr-2.000 |
| Above $2.00 | 4¢ | −4pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27jun-2.000 |
| Above $2.00 | 3¢ | +10pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-26oct-2.000 |
| Above $1.25 | 3¢ | −12pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxa100ms-27feb-1.250 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.75 | Above $1.00 | Above $1.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 29 | 20 | 23 |
| 2026-07-02 | 65 | 60 | 58 |
| 2026-07-05 | — | 70 | 59 |
| 2026-07-08 | 71 | 49 | 46 |
| 2026-07-09 | 81 | 49 | 20 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Above $1.00 −57pp 59→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Above $1.00 +44pp 2→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Above $1.00 +40pp 20→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Above $0.75 +36pp 29→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Above $1.00 +35pp 23→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 91% probability that NVIDIA's A100 GPU will trade at an average monthly price above $1.25 in December 2026. The high confidence suggests markets expect sustained demand and stable pricing for the A100 through year-end, despite ongoing competition from newer GPU architectures. The probability is driven primarily by current A100 pricing trends and expectations for enterprise datacenter adoption, though future GPU supply dynamics and shifts toward newer models like the H100 or B100 could pressure prices downward. The key uncertainty resolves in December 2026 when actual monthly average pricing is calculated, but interim data releases on datacenter GPU demand and NVIDIA's product roadmap announcements between now and then will provide early signals about whether the A100 sustains this price threshold.

### Key factors

- Current spot prices for A100 compute access are already near or above $1.25 per unit, making the threshold easily attainable under status quo conditions
- Continued enterprise datacenter buildout and GPU scarcity in certain regions could maintain or elevate prices through December 2026
- Availability of competing architectures (H100, B100, or third-party alternatives) at lower cost could erode A100 demand and prices below the $1.25 level
- August 2026 pricing data will provide a real-time test of the market's assumption; the runner-up contract at 86% shows traders expect prices to remain elevated in near-term months
- Supply chain disruptions or unexpected demand surges could shift the outcome, but current volatility metrics ($45 24h volume on the December contract) suggest confidence in the forecast

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100ms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=a100ms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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