# Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.94 by Jun 30

> Above $0.54 leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100q
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:06.974Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.54 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $0.74 at 97%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.54 | 97¢ | — | $135 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-0.540 |
| Above $0.74 | 97¢ | — | $129 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-0.740 |
| Above $0.84 | 97¢ | — | $123 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-0.840 |
| Above $0.64 | 97¢ | +33pp | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-0.640 |
| Above $0.94 | 95¢ | — | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-0.940 |
| Above $1.04 | 91¢ | +32pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.040 |
| Above $1.24 | 73¢ | +21pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.240 |
| Above $1.14 | 73¢ | — | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.140 |
| Above $1.34 | 44¢ | — | $62 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.340 |
| Above $1.44 | 31¢ | ±0 | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.440 |
| Above $1.54 | 18¢ | — | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.540 |
| Above $1.64 | 14¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.640 |
| Above $2.04 | 6¢ | — | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-2.040 |
| Above $1.74 | 6¢ | — | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.740 |
| Above $1.84 | 5¢ | −14pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.840 |
| Above $1.94 | 5¢ | — | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-a100-sxm4-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxa100q-26jun30-1.940 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.54 | Above $0.74 | Above $0.84 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 65 | 60 | 62 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Above $0.64 +33pp 64→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.04 +32pp 59→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.24 +21pp 46→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.84 −14pp 18→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 97% probability that NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU compute will cost more than $1.94 per hour by June 30, 2026. The high confidence reflects the broader decline in cloud compute pricing over recent years, where GPU hourly rates have compressed as supply expanded and competition intensified among cloud providers. Downward pressure on pricing would need to reverse sharply—through either major supply constraints, demand surge, or cartel-like pricing coordination—to keep rates below $1.94. The market is implicitly pricing this outcome as extremely unlikely within the next month. The resolution will depend on actual quoted pricing from major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) as of June 30, and whether any significant supply or demand shocks materialize between now and then.

### Key factors

- Historical GPU pricing trends show consistent hourly rate compression over 2023–2026, with A100 costs dropping from ~$3+ to ~$0.50–$1.00 range across major providers
- Current spot and on-demand rates from AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure need to remain above $1.94/hour on June 30; pricing below this threshold would require no further compression from today's levels
- Supply of A100 capacity has grown significantly due to new data center deployments and competitor chips (H100, L40S, newer generations); reduced scarcity would support lower pricing
- Major cloud providers' pricing announcements or promotions between now and June 30 could influence realized hourly rates at contract expiration
- If GPU shortage emerges or enterprise AI workload demand surges unexpectedly, it could support higher pricing; conversely, new chip releases or reduced utilization would push rates down

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100q
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=a100q

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.