# Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10

> Above $0.50 leads at 97%, runner-up 94% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100ws
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.238Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.50 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $0.75 at 94%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $160

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.50 | 97¢ | +40pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul17-0.500 |
| Above $0.75 | 94¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26aug07-0.750 |
| Above $0.75 | 84¢ | ±0 | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul17-0.750 |
| Above $0.50 | 67¢ | +17pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul24-0.500 |
| Above $0.75 | 67¢ | +4pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul24-0.750 |
| Above $1.00 | 61¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul17-1.000 |
| Above $1.00 | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul24-1.000 |
| Above $1.00 | 54¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26aug07-1.000 |
| Above $1.25 | 29¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul31-1.250 |
| Above $1.25 | 27¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul24-1.250 |
| Above $1.50 | 9¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26aug07-1.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul17-1.500 |
| Above $2.00 | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26aug07-2.000 |
| Above $1.25 | 4¢ | −15pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-a100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxa100ws-26jul17-1.250 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.50 | Above $0.75 | Above $0.75 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 51 | 36 | 28 |
| 2026-06-30 | 92 | 69 | 74 |
| 2026-07-01 | 42 | 53 | 67 |
| 2026-07-02 | 82 | 55 | 57 |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 77 | 94 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-02 · Above $0.75 +41pp 17→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Above $0.50 +40pp 42→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Above $1.25 −29pp 40→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above $0.75 +28pp 49→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Above $0.75 +27pp 57→84¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is assessing whether NVIDIA's A100 GPU will cost more than $2 per compute hour on July 10, 2026. The current 95% probability reflects expectations that prices will remain above this threshold, despite recent pricing pressure. The main driver is the competitive cloud computing market, where GPU pricing has been declining due to increased supply from multiple vendors and improved utilization efficiency. What could move this probability is either unexpected demand spikes that tighten GPU availability, or accelerated commoditization that pushes rental costs lower. The July 10 resolution date is a near-term checkpoint—earlier contract activity shows traders assessing intermediate price levels on July 3 and July 17, suggesting the market expects volatility around major cloud provider pricing announcements or usage reports during this period.

### Key factors

- NVIDIA A100 spot prices on major cloud platforms (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) in the week preceding July 10, particularly any rate changes announced by providers
- Competing GPU availability and pricing for alternatives (H100, L40S, TPUs), which directly influences A100 rental rates through substitution pressure
- Monthly or quarterly cloud computing pricing reports or earnings guidance released in early July that would signal demand or supply shifts
- Trading volume and implied volatility in the related contracts for July 3 and July 17 thresholds, which suggest market confidence in near-term stability versus longer-term pricing pressure
- Historical A100 pricing trend over the 10 days immediately before July 10, compared to the baseline assumption embedded in the 95% contract price

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/a100ws
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=a100ws
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.