# Will average gas prices be above $3.975

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 4.540. Last odds frozen 7 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasd
Updated: 2026-05-31T19:20:12.385Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.315 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 4.305 at 96%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $49K
- Resolved: Above 4.540

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.315 | 96¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4315-above-4315-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.315 |
| Above 4.305 | 96¢ | — | $385 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4305-above-4305-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.305 |
| Above 4.300 | 96¢ | −1pp | $276 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4300-above-4300-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.300 |
| Above 4.310 | 95¢ | — | $374 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4310-above-4310-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.310 |
| Above 4.320 | 93¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4320-above-4320-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.320 |
| Above 4.325 | 90¢ | — | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4325-above-4325-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.325 |
| Above 4.330 | 76¢ | +11pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4330-above-4330-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.330 |
| Above 4.335 | 36¢ | +2pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4335-above-4335-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.335 |
| Above 4.340 | 14¢ | +4pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4340-above-4340-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.340 |
| Above 4.345 | 4¢ | — | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4345-above-4345-kalshi-kxaaagasd-26may31-4.345 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.315 | Above 4.305 | Above 4.300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 95 | 95 | 97 |
| 2026-05-31 | 96 | — | 96 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is pricing in a 96% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon over a specified period. The high probability reflects current market expectations based on crude oil dynamics, refinery capacity, and seasonal demand patterns. Gas prices are primarily driven by global crude oil production and geopolitical supply disruptions, alongside seasonal factors like summer driving demand and refinery maintenance schedules. The main uncertainty revolves around whether economic slowdown, increased oil production from key exporters, or demand destruction could pressure prices below this threshold. The critical catalyst will be crude oil pricing trends and any announced changes in strategic petroleum reserve releases or major supply disruptions. Traders are currently pricing meaningful tail risk below $4.46 per gallon, as evidenced by the sharp probability dropoff at higher price levels, suggesting consensus around baseline scenarios but substantial disagreement at the margins.

### Key factors

- WTI crude oil is currently trading near $70-80/barrel; a sustained drop below $60 would materially reduce probability of prices staying above $4.44
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any announced maintenance shutdowns in the next 2-3 months directly affect supply and price floor expectations
- Summer driving season demand (June-August peak) is a known seasonal tailwind; if demand data shows unexpected weakness, probabilities could shift downward
- OPEC+ production decisions and any changes to output quotas announced in upcoming meetings would create immediate repricing
- Strategic petroleum reserve levels and any announced purchases or releases by the Department of Energy would signal government market intervention

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.