# Will average gas prices be above $3.25

> Above 2.50 leads at 92%, runner-up 91% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagased
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.085Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.50 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 2.75 at 91%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.50 | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-250-above-250-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-2.50 |
| Above 2.75 | 91¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-275-above-275-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-2.75 |
| Above 3.00 | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-300-above-300-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-3.00 |
| Above 3.25 | 81¢ | −4pp | $443 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-325-above-325-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-3.25 |
| Above 3.50 | 73¢ | −5pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-350-above-350-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-3.50 |
| Above 3.75 | 65¢ | −3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-375-above-375-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-3.75 |
| Above 4.00 | 55¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-400-above-400-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-4.00 |
| Above 4.25 | 46¢ | −1pp | $484 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-425-above-425-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-4.25 |
| Above 4.50 | 39¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-450-above-450-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-4.50 |
| Above 4.75 | 23¢ | +2pp | $104 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-475-above-475-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-4.75 |
| Above 5.00 | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-500-above-500-kalshi-kxaaagased-26nov03-5.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.50 | Above 2.75 | Above 3.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 80 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | — | 78 | 88 |
| 2026-05-12 | 91 | 90 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 93 | 93 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | — | — | 79 |
| 2026-06-01 | 93 | 93 | 92 |
| 2026-06-07 | 89 | 91 | 88 |
| 2026-06-08 | 89 | — | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Above 3.50 +29pp 26→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 4.50 +22pp 17→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 4.25 +21pp 18→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Above 3.50 −21pp 47→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 4.00 +20pp 31→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing in a 96% probability that average gas prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon, based on 20 competing price-threshold contracts. This high probability reflects current elevated fuel costs driven by crude oil pricing, refinery constraints, and seasonal demand patterns. The range of contracts ($4.44 to $4.50) shows traders are relatively confident prices will stay well above historical averages, though disagreement persists at higher thresholds. The probability would shift materially if crude oil prices decline significantly, global supply disruptions ease, or demand weakens unexpectedly. Resolution depends on actual price-tracking data over the contract period, with ongoing crude markets, OPEC decisions, and summer driving season dynamics serving as key information sources.

### Key factors

- Crude oil prices remain near or above $75–80 per barrel; any sustained drop below $70 would pressure the probability downward
- U.S. refinery utilization and any unplanned outages directly affect supply; significant maintenance or closure would support higher prices
- Seasonal gasoline demand typically peaks May–September; a weaker-than-expected summer driving season could reduce upside pressure
- The probability cliff narrows sharply above $4.46, suggesting traders assign low odds to prices above $4.50 despite the high confidence in $4.44+
- Global geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions, sanctions, supply disruptions) represents the largest upside catalyst; stability would favor lower probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagased
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagased
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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