# Will average gas prices be above $4.60

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasm
Updated: 2026-05-31T19:20:12.385Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.30 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 4.31 at 96%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $390K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.30 | 97¢ | +1pp | $76K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-430-above-430-kalshi-kxaaagasm-26may31-4.30 |
| Above 4.31 | 96¢ | +2pp | $73K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-431-above-431-kalshi-kxaaagasm-26may31-4.31 |
| Above 4.32 | 92¢ | +17pp | $111K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-432-above-432-kalshi-kxaaagasm-26may31-4.32 |
| Above 4.33 | 67¢ | +12pp | $84K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-433-above-433-kalshi-kxaaagasm-26may31-4.33 |
| Above 4.34 | 14¢ | ±0 | $45K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-434-above-434-kalshi-kxaaagasm-26may31-4.34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.30 | Above 4.31 | Above 4.32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 78 | — | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 91 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 89 | 72 | 58 |
| 2026-05-29 | 96 | 88 | 73 |
| 2026-05-30 | 97 | 90 | 75 |
| 2026-05-31 | — | — | 92 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents a 96% probability that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.60 per gallon over a specified period. The high probability reflects current market pricing where contracts for thresholds near $4.44–$4.50 trade close to parity, indicating traders expect prices to remain elevated. Key drivers include crude oil price movements, refinery capacity constraints, seasonal demand patterns, and geopolitical supply disruptions. The main uncertainty hinges on whether crude prices remain above current levels and whether summer demand materializes as expected. Resolution depends on actual average price data from the relevant measurement period, with historical volatility suggesting significant moves remain possible.

### Key factors

- Crude oil price levels: Brent/WTI prices must sustain above thresholds that support $4.60+ retail prices; a decline below $80/barrel would lower probability materially
- Refinery utilization and capacity: Operating levels above 90% support higher prices; planned maintenance outages could tighten supply and increase prices
- Seasonal demand: Summer driving season (May-September) typically raises consumption; a weaker-than-expected season would reduce upward pressure
- Gasoline inventory levels: Weekly EIA data showing inventory builds above 5-year average would suggest downward price pressure
- Dollar strength and geopolitical risk: USD appreciation increases crude import costs' burden on producers; Middle East tensions or supply disruptions could push prices higher

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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