# Will average gas prices be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026

> Above $4.60 leads at 55%, runner-up 49% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmax
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.208Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.60 at 55%
- Runner-up: Above $4.80 at 49%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.60 | 55¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-460-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-4.60 |
| Above $4.80 | 49¢ | +2pp | $916 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-480-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-4.80 |
| Above $5.00 | 36¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-500-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-5.00 |
| Above $5.20 | 30¢ | +3pp | $890 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-520-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-5.20 |
| Above $5.40 | 21¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-540-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-5.40 |
| Above $5.80 | 18¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-580-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-5.80 |
| Above $5.60 | 17¢ | +1pp | $299 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-560-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-5.60 |
| Above $6.00 | 12¢ | +1pp | $536 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-600-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-6.00 |
| Above $6.20 | 9¢ | ±0 | $129 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-620-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-6.20 |
| Above $6.40 | 7¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-640-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-6.40 |
| Above $6.80 | 5¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-680-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-6.80 |
| Above $6.60 | 5¢ | +2pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-660-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-6.60 |
| Above $7.00 | 3¢ | ±0 | $722 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-700-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmax-26dec31-7.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.60 | Above $4.80 | Above $5.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 85 | 73 | 57 |
| 2026-05-24 | 82 | 66 | 37 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 59 | 41 |
| 2026-06-01 | 57 | 39 | 27 |
| 2026-06-07 | 55 | 41 | 34 |
| 2026-06-08 | 52 | — | 36 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Above $4.80 +12pp 39→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above $4.80 −8pp 51→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above $5.00 +6pp 29→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above $4.60 +5pp 56→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above $4.60 −5pp 57→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The prediction market is pricing a 96% likelihood that U.S. average gasoline prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon by year-end 2026. This high probability reflects current market conditions and expectations about crude oil supply, refinery capacity, and demand through December. The assessment hinges on whether OPEC production decisions, global crude supplies, and domestic fuel consumption remain stable or shift materially. Prices above $4.44 would require sustained demand or constrained supply; prices below would suggest either increased production or demand destruction. The outcome resolves when the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes final average retail gasoline prices for 2026, making this a backward-looking measure rather than a forward prediction of price direction.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. average gasoline price and trend from May 2026 through December, as reported by EIA
- OPEC production levels and announced policy changes affecting global crude oil supply
- Refinery utilization rates and unplanned outages that constrain fuel output
- Seasonal demand patterns and economic activity indicators affecting consumption from June through year-end
- Geopolitical events or supply disruptions that could significantly alter crude availability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmax
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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