# Will average gas prices be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026

> Above $6.20 leads at 73%, runner-up 59% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxca
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.646Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $6.20 at 73%
- Runner-up: Above $6.40 at 59%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.20 | 73¢ | −45pp | $336 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-620-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-6.20 |
| Above $6.40 | 59¢ | −1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-640-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-6.40 |
| Above $6.60 | 45¢ | −1pp | $239 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-660-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-6.60 |
| Above $7.00 | 30¢ | +2pp | $304 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-700-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-7.00 |
| Above $7.20 | 24¢ | −5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-720-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-7.20 |
| Above $7.40 | 20¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-740-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-7.40 |
| Above $7.80 | 12¢ | +2pp | $348 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-780-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-7.80 |
| Above $7.60 | 12¢ | ±0 | $238 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-760-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-7.60 |
| Above $8.00 | 11¢ | −1pp | $393 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-800-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-8.00 |
| Above $6.80 | 4¢ | −9pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-680-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxca-26dec31-6.80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $6.20 | Above $6.40 | Above $6.60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 73 | 68 |
| 2026-05-11 | 89 | 80 | 75 |
| 2026-05-25 | 81 | 71 | 61 |
| 2026-06-01 | 76 | 56 | 52 |
| 2026-06-07 | 28 | 60 | 48 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 59 | 47 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Above $6.20 −68pp 76→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Above $6.40 −47pp 56→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above $6.20 −45pp 73→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above $6.40 +34pp 21→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Above $6.20 +33pp 40→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing in a 93% likelihood that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by the end of 2026, with a sharp dropoff in probability at higher thresholds (82% above $4.50, 31% above $7.60). This reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated relative to historical lows but well below 2022 peaks. The primary drivers are crude oil supply constraints, OPEC production decisions, and global demand patterns, offset by potential demand destruction if prices spike or recession pressures emerge. Seasonal factors—summer driving season peaking in June-August—and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve level will influence near-term volatility. The contract structure reveals market consensus clustering around the $4.40–$4.50 range as the most probable outcome, suggesting traders expect prices to stay in a moderate-to-elevated band rather than revert to pre-2022 levels or spike toward crisis pricing.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. average gas price as of early May 2026 and spot crude oil prices relative to the $4.40 threshold, establishing the baseline for 7-month price averaging
- Crude oil production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC producers (U.S., Russia, others) and any announced supply adjustments through December 2026
- Summer 2026 gasoline demand data (June–August driving season) and any recessions or demand-destruction events that would suppress consumption and prices
- Geopolitical disruptions to oil transit routes (Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal) or major producing nations that could constrain supply unexpectedly
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill or drawdown decisions by the U.S. government and their timing, which directly affects fuel availability and pricing pressure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmaxca
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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