# Will average gas prices be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026

> Above $4.90 leads at 33%, runner-up 30% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxfl
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.463Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.90 at 33%
- Runner-up: Above $4.70 at 30%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.90 | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-490-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31-4.90 |
| Above $4.70 | 30¢ | +8pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-470-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31-4.70 |
| Above $5.10 | 21¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-510-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31-5.10 |
| Above $5.30 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-530-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31-5.30 |
| Above $5.70 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-570-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxfl-26dec31-5.70 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.90 | Above $4.70 | Above $5.10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 33 | 44 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 41 | 37 | 26 |
| 2026-06-18 | 4 | 32 | 3 |
| 2026-06-19 | 13 | 27 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 30 | 25 | 21 |
| 2026-06-26 | 35 | 33 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above $5.10 +15pp 3→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above $5.10 +14pp 7→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above $4.90 +9pp 4→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above $4.70 +8pp 25→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $5.10 −8pp 18→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market participants are assigning a 93% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, based on 20 contracts trading on Kalshi. This reflects expectations that fuel costs will remain elevated through December rather than falling sharply. The forecast depends primarily on crude oil supply dynamics, OPEC production decisions, and global demand trends, particularly from China and other major economies. Near-term catalysts include upcoming energy inventory reports, geopolitical developments affecting Middle Eastern production, and macroeconomic data signaling recession risk or demand destruction. Notably, the market assigns only a 6% probability to prices falling below $2.00, suggesting traders view extreme downside scenarios as unlikely.

### Key factors

- Current WTI crude oil price and trend—crude typically drives 50-70% of retail gasoline variation
- OPEC+ production policy decisions, particularly Saudi Arabia's output levels and stated production targets through Q4 2026
- U.S. refinery capacity utilization rates and seasonal maintenance schedules that affect gasoline supply
- Macroeconomic growth expectations and vehicle fuel demand projections relative to inventory levels
- Geopolitical risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, sanctions, or supply disruptions that could compress margins

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxfl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmaxfl
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.