# Will average gas prices go above $4.25 by Sep 30, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxm
Updated: 2026-09-11T13:20:52.867Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.30 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above $4.35 at 79%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.30 | 92¢ | +28pp | $551 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-430-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.30 |
| Above $4.35 | 79¢ | +17pp | $278 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-435-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.35 |
| Above $4.40 | 54¢ | +9pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-440-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.40 |
| Above $4.45 | 45¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-445-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.45 |
| Above $4.50 | 34¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-450-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.50 |
| Above $4.60 | 15¢ | +4pp | $217 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-460-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.60 |
| Above $4.55 | 15¢ | +2pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-above-455-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxm-26sep30-4.55 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.30 | Above $4.35 | Above $4.40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | 82 | 52 | 37 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 60% probability that the U.S. average gasoline price will exceed $4.20 per gallon by September 30, 2026—roughly 4 weeks away. The current price trajectory and crude oil futures are the primary drivers: prices would need to rise about 5-10% from typical late summer levels to reach this threshold, which depends on global oil supply, refinery capacity utilization, and seasonal demand patterns as summer driving season winds down. The most immediate catalyst is weekly EIA petroleum inventory reports and any geopolitical disruptions to crude supply; additionally, hurricane season activity could affect Gulf Coast refining capacity through early October. The contract ladder (ranging from $4.20 to $4.40) shows markets treating prices in the $4.20–$4.30 range as reasonably probable but not highly likely.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. average gas price relative to the $4.20 threshold as of early September 2026, with typical late-summer pricing patterns
- WTI crude futures contract prices and global supply/demand fundamentals, particularly OPEC production decisions and geopolitical risk
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any unplanned outages that would tighten supply in the final four weeks of September
- Hurricane season impacts on Gulf of Mexico production and coastal refining infrastructure through month-end
- Seasonal demand decline as Labor Day passes and autumn driving patterns typically reduce consumption pressure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmaxm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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