# Will average gas prices be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026

> Above $4.80 leads at 50%, runner-up 30% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxny
Updated: 2026-09-25T08:20:51.455Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.80 at 50%
- Runner-up: Above $5.00 at 30%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $287

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.80 | 50¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-480-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-4.80 |
| Above $5.00 | 30¢ | ±0 | $147 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-500-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-5.00 |
| Above $5.20 | 27¢ | −3pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-520-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-5.20 |
| Above $5.40 | 16¢ | +2pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-540-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-5.40 |
| Above $5.60 | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-560-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-5.60 |
| Above $5.80 | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-580-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-5.80 |
| Above $6.00 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-600-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxny-26dec31-6.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.80 | Above $5.00 | Above $5.20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | 23 | 11 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 24 | — | 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | 37 | 18 | 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | 21 | 32 | 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | 49 | 31 | 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | 50 | — | — |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Above $4.80 −34pp 55→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above $4.80 +19pp 21→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Above $4.80 +10pp 40→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above $5.40 +9pp 8→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above $5.40 −9pp 17→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a 30% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.80 per gallon by the end of 2026. Currently, prices are trading well below this threshold, so the outcome depends primarily on future crude oil supply disruptions, refinery capacity changes, and global demand shifts. The contract chain shows declining probabilities for progressively higher price levels, suggesting markets view extreme price spikes as unlikely but not impossible. Key drivers include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical stability in major oil-producing regions, and U.S. inventory levels. Winter demand patterns (typically peaking in the final quarter) and any major supply disruptions between now and December 31 would be the primary catalysts that could either elevate or reduce the likelihood of exceeding $4.80.

### Key factors

- Current average U.S. gas prices are approximately $2.80-$3.00 per gallon; reaching $4.80 would require a 60-70% price increase in roughly five months
- OPEC+ production policy decisions scheduled through 2026 will directly influence crude supply and downstream retail pricing
- Winter heating demand typically raises fuel costs in Q4, but the magnitude of any seasonal increase would need to be substantial to hit $4.80
- Geopolitical events affecting major oil-producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) represent the highest-probability catalyst for significant price acceleration
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels and refinery utilization rates will constrain upside price potential absent a major supply shock

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxny
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmaxny
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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