# Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026

> Above $4.20 leads at 35%, runner-up 9% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxtx
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:48.732Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.20 at 35%
- Runner-up: Above $6.00 at 9%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.20 | 35¢ | +6pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-420-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31-4.20 |
| Above $6.00 | 9¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-600-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31-6.00 |
| Above $4.80 | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-480-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31-4.80 |
| Above $4.40 | 5¢ | −3pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-440-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31-4.40 |
| Above $5.20 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-520-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31-5.20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.20 | Above $6.00 | Above $4.80 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 34 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-03 | 57 | 8 | 20 |
| 2026-06-12 | 56 | 1 | 28 |
| 2026-06-18 | 26 | — | 6 |
| 2026-06-19 | 27 | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 32 | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 38 | — | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Above $4.40 +19pp 12→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above $4.40 −18pp 36→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above $4.40 −10pp 18→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above $4.20 −8pp 40→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above $6.00 +8pp 1→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently assign a 93% probability that U.S. average gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, based on aggregated predictions across 20 contracts. The high probability reflects expectations that global oil supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, or seasonal demand will keep fuel prices elevated through the final months of the year. The market assigns much lower odds to extreme scenarios—only 31% chance prices exceed $7.60, and just 6% probability they fall below $2.00. Resolution depends primarily on crude oil prices, refinery utilization rates, and whether major supply disruptions occur before December 31. Current sentiment suggests markets expect prices to remain in a $4.40–$4.50 range rather than spike significantly higher or crash lower. Economic growth rates and Federal Reserve policy will influence demand indirectly through their effect on overall fuel consumption.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. average gasoline prices as of May 2026 serve as the baseline; any sustained movement below $4.40 would require a supply glut or demand collapse
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil price momentum is the primary driver; each $10/barrel move typically shifts retail prices by roughly $0.25–$0.35 per gallon
- Refinery maintenance schedules and unplanned outages between May and December 2026 directly affect supply and price volatility
- Seasonal demand patterns peak in summer (June–August) then decline in fall; lower-volatility winter demand in Q4 could pull prices downward
- No current market assigns >66% probability to prices above $6.80, indicating traders view extreme price spikes as low-probability events

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmaxtx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmaxtx
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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