# Will average gas prices be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026

> Below $3.40 leads at 51%, runner-up 42% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmin
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.117Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Below $3.40 at 51%
- Runner-up: Below $3.20 at 42%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $912

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $3.40 | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-below-340-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmin-26dec31-3.40 |
| Below $3.20 | 42¢ | −31pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-below-320-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmin-26dec31-3.20 |
| Below $3.60 | 39¢ | −23pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-below-360-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmin-26dec31-3.60 |
| Below $3.00 | 30¢ | −13pp | $898 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-below-300-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmin-26dec31-3.00 |
| Below $3.80 | 17¢ | −6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-below-380-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmin-26dec31-3.80 |
| Below $2.80 | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-below-280-by-dec-31-202-kalshi-kxaaagasmin-26dec31-2.80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $3.40 | Below $3.20 | Below $3.60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 71 |
| 2026-05-31 | 42 | 31 | 58 |
| 2026-06-12 | 29 | 18 | 67 |
| 2026-06-19 | 60 | 48 | 77 |
| 2026-06-25 | 64 | 45 | 54 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 14 | 31 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Below $3.20 −31pp 45→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Below $3.60 −28pp 82→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Below $3.60 −23pp 54→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Below $3.00 −13pp 41→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Below $2.80 −12pp 14→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets are pricing a 93% chance that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.40 by year-end 2026, with declining probabilities at higher thresholds ($4.50 at 82%, $6.80 at 66%). This reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated through December, driven primarily by global crude oil supply dynamics and seasonal demand patterns. The current market view suggests prices are unlikely to fall below $3.80, though contracts show non-trivial probability mass above $7.60 (31%) and below $2.00 (6%), indicating tail-risk positioning. Resolution depends on OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical stability in key oil regions, and U.S. refinery capacity—factors that typically shift between now and Q4 2026. The sharp probability cliff between the $4.40 and $4.50 thresholds suggests this range represents the market's highest-confidence prediction band.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. average gas price relative to $4.40 threshold and trend direction over past 3 months
- OPEC+ oil production quotas and compliance rates announced through 2026, particularly decisions in Q2-Q3
- Geopolitical events affecting Middle Eastern crude supply or shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any announced maintenance or outage schedules for H2 2026
- Historical seasonal patterns showing summer-to-fall price movements and their deviation from current implied volatility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.