# Will average gas prices be above or below $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026

> Below $4.10 leads at 10%, runner-up 8% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasminca
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.003Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Below $4.10 at 10%
- Runner-up: Below $3.80 at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $96

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $4.10 | 10¢ | +4pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-410-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasminca-26dec31-4.10 |
| Below $3.80 | 8¢ | +1pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-380-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasminca-26dec31-3.80 |
| Below $4.00 | 3¢ | −1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-400-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasminca-26dec31-4.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $4.10 | Below $3.80 | Below $4.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 | 6 | 5 |
| 2026-04-24 | 16 | — | 1 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 17 | 9 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 15 | — | 14 |
| 2026-05-07 | 9 | — | 2 |
| 2026-05-08 | 13 | — | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Below $4.00 −11pp 14→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Below $4.10 −5pp 15→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Below $4.10 +4pp 9→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Below $4.00 −3pp 17→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 15% probability that average U.S. gas prices will remain below $3.90 through the end of 2026. The low probability reflects a forecast heavily weighted toward prices staying higher than this threshold over the next eight months. Current price expectations lean firmly upward, as evidenced by the 93-cent contract pricing for prices above $4.40—suggesting the market sees substantial likelihood of prices exceeding that level. Price movements would depend on crude oil supply disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, global demand shifts, and U.S. refinery capacity. The most immediate driver will be oil futures and weekly petroleum inventory reports from the EIA, which directly influence short-term pump prices. A significant recession, energy surplus, or major geopolitical de-escalation could push prices lower toward the sub-$3.90 target, while supply constraints or demand acceleration would sustain higher levels.

### Key factors

- Global crude oil production and OPEC+ output decisions through December 2026
- U.S. refinery utilization rates and any unplanned maintenance outages affecting fuel supply
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting transportation fuel demand, particularly recession risk or industrial slowdown
- Historical price comparison: average U.S. gas was approximately $3.50-3.60 in early 2026, requiring a meaningful decline to reach below $3.90
- Weekly EIA petroleum inventory reports and crude oil futures pricing as near-term price discovery mechanisms

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasminca
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasminca
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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