# Will average gas prices be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026

> Below $2.60 leads at 5%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasminfl
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.907Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Below $2.60 at 5%
- Runner-up: Below $2.40 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2.60 | 5¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-260-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasminfl-26dec31-2.60 |
| Below $2.40 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-240-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasminfl-26dec31-2.40 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $2.60 | Below $2.40 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-28 | 16 | 18 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 | 10 |
| 2026-06-19 | 31 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-06-24 | 6 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 4 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Below $2.60 −27pp 32→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Below $2.60 +12pp 19→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Below $2.40 −3pp 5→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing in an 93% probability that average US gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026. This reflects expectations about crude oil supplies, refinery capacity, and global demand over the next eight months. The wide spread of contracts—ranging from expectations below $2.00 to above $7.60—indicates substantial uncertainty about potential scenarios. Current sentiment leans toward elevated prices, though this could shift based on OPEC production decisions, hurricane impacts on Gulf Coast refineries, global economic growth, and geopolitical developments. The EIA's weekly petroleum reports and monthly inventory data will provide crucial signals about supply-demand dynamics. Seasonal summer driving demand and potential supply disruptions represent the most immediate price drivers through Q3 2026.

### Key factors

- OPEC+ production policy decisions and their compliance rates, which directly influence global crude supplies available to US refineries
- Current crude oil prices relative to historical levels; WTI trading above $70-75/barrel would support gas prices near or above $4.40
- Refinery utilization rates and maintenance schedules; unplanned outages or seasonal maintenance affect gasoline production volumes
- US driving demand patterns, particularly seasonal summer peak (Memorial Day through Labor Day) which typically supports higher prices
- Hurricane season (June-November 2026) and potential disruptions to Gulf Coast refining and crude production infrastructure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasminfl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasminfl
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.