# Will average gas prices go below $3.70 by Sep 30, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasminm
Updated: 2026-09-11T13:20:52.867Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $299

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $4.00 | 5¢ | −31pp | $299 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-go-below-400-by-sep-30-202-kalshi-kxaaagasminm-26sep30-4.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 45 |
| 2026-09-10 | 6 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets assess a 47% chance average U.S. gas prices will fall below $3.70 per gallon by September 30, 2026. The current market lean reflects uncertainty about near-term crude oil supply, global demand signals, and refinery capacity through quarter-end. Oil prices, geopolitical events affecting production, and seasonal demand patterns are primary drivers—prices below $3.70 would require either sustained crude weakness or significant demand softening. The resolution depends on actual pump prices reported through September, with weekly data releases and any major supply disruptions serving as key catalysts for repricing. The 18¢ trading price on this specific contract and modest trading volume suggest limited liquidity around this particular threshold compared to nearby brackets like $3.80 (23¢, higher volume).

### Key factors

- Crude oil prices must remain under pressure to support sub-$3.70 retail averages; WTI currently above $70/bbl suggests limited margin
- Seasonal factors: late September typically shows declining demand as summer driving season ends, which could aid price declines
- Refinery maintenance schedules and any unexpected outages or supply disruptions over the next 27 days could shift the outcome significantly
- The $3.70 threshold sits between the $3.80 (23% implied probability) and $3.60 (12%) brackets, indicating markets see meaningful spread around this level
- Trading volume is extremely light ($3/day on this contract), suggesting low conviction or pricing efficiency concerns among active participants

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasminm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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