# Will average gas prices be above or below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026

> Below $2.30 leads at 14%, runner-up 7% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmintx
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.491Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Below $2.30 at 14%
- Runner-up: Below $2.20 at 7%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $128

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2.30 | 14¢ | +2pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-230-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmintx-26dec31-2.30 |
| Below $2.20 | 7¢ | ±0 | $98 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-220-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmintx-26dec31-2.20 |
| Below $2.00 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-200-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmintx-26dec31-2.00 |
| Below $2.10 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-210-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmintx-26dec31-2.10 |
| Below $1.80 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-180-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmintx-26dec31-1.80 |
| Below $1.90 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-or-below-190-by-d-kalshi-kxaaagasmintx-26dec31-1.90 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $2.30 | Below $2.20 | Below $2.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 13 | 8 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 11 | 12 | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | 18 | — | 7 |
| 2026-06-19 | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| 2026-06-22 | 14 | 7 | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | — | — | 6 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Below $2.00 −6pp 11→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Below $2.00 +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 93% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, with declining probabilities for higher thresholds ($4.50 at 82%, $7.60 at 31%). This reflects expectations that crude oil prices and refining conditions will remain elevated through the year. The probability is primarily driven by current energy markets, geopolitical supply risks, and seasonal demand patterns. Key drivers of upward pressure include OPEC production decisions, Middle East tensions, and summer driving season demand spikes; downward pressure comes from potential recession signals, increased U.S. shale production, or strategic petroleum reserve releases. The most significant catalyst will be quarterly crude oil price movements and OPEC+ production meetings scheduled throughout 2026, which typically influence gasoline futures and spot prices within weeks.

### Key factors

- Current crude oil futures prices and the crude-to-gasoline price spread as of May 2026
- OPEC+ production quotas and announced supply adjustments for H2 2026
- U.S. inventory levels and refinery utilization rates relative to seasonal norms
- Probability falls sharply at $4.50 (82%) and drops to 31% at $7.60, suggesting market consensus clusters around $4.40-$4.50 range
- Trading volume concentration ($1,280 in 24h volume on $4.40 contract vs. lower volumes on extreme thresholds) indicates core market conviction around mid-range outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aaagasmintx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aaagasmintx
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.