# Aarhus GF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aarhus-gf-vs-snderjyske-fodbold-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:35:47.035Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $906

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | −20pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xf8c9058bc3f1c77e39ed03a30a3df9c41a377d75a71ad86ff20ff5167bf086be |
| Punjab FC (-1.5) | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/punjab-fc-vs-chennaiyin-fc-more-markets-punjab-fc-polymarket-0xea81e11adacd16d06cc52afd8e83cd1864dc58b62135f7e7931fbb9b70da2c80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Punjab FC (-1.5) −3pp 37→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that the Aarhus GF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold match will produce more markets (likely over 2.5 total goals). At 39%, traders are pricing this as less likely than not. The level reflects typical defensive patterns in Danish Superliga fixtures, where both teams' recent form, injury status, and attacking capability influence goal expectations. Sønderjyske's scoring consistency and Aarhus's defensive record are primary inputs shaping the odds. The match itself—scheduled as a regular-season contest—will definitively resolve the outcome, making actual team performance and lineup decisions the critical unknowns before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Sønderjyske's average goals per game this season compared to their opponent's defensive record
- Aarhus GF's recent injury status, particularly among key defenders or midfielders affecting transition play
- Head-to-head goal totals in previous Aarhus-Sønderjyske matchups and overall league scoring trends
- Weather conditions and pitch state on match day, which materially affect pace and chance creation in Danish football
- Team motivation levels based on final standings implications if the match occurs late in the season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aarhus-gf-vs-snderjyske-fodbold-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aarhus-gf-vs-snderjyske-fodbold-more-markets

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