# ABA League

> Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet leads at 49%, runner-up 48% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aba-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.601Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet at 48%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-partizan-mozzart-bet-polymarket-0x4cfed7bbc09bb7e6a8b2d5f3cb4e9a47f6b238196d14cca1fb51108e416f8799 |
| Winner: Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-crvena-zvezda-meridianbet-polymarket-0xc2183214c7a25c49be63cd7ef380a08d9e678c81e697b9a48bfdbd702e59bc2f |
| Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca | 48¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-u-bt-cluj-napoca-polymarket-0x2d9c19fd5a91abbf9500a0b6718e58e67888771c5e4613c5077ba264b5587f54 |
| Winner: Dubai Basketball | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-dubai-basketball-polymarket-0xeefeb4456192300b24561a63528cd5eb60a172df5dcbf059eb2aed970cabee9a |
| Winner: Cedevita Olimpija | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-cedevita-olimpija-polymarket-0xf2664d74a2c2c93489ca472d232fb78ca799c3ed7fdf06e178d8971b93697323 |
| Winner: Bosna BH Telecom | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-bosna-bh-telecom-polymarket-0xe1f5e716af98267689f956f893f39c41dfa32296db07c32ca9e114b4ce93a8a0 |
| Winner: Budućnost VOLI | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-budunost-voli-polymarket-0x04ccc838ec3b7afad77130d9b95f50ce10873dc1017d75f02ef986f09558bb0b |
| Winner: Spartak Office Shoes | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aba-league-winner-spartak-office-shoes-polymarket-0x5e806042e66efe16489099dd38ebe24485755b7f4f7c3eefd4d09bf0a293b776 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet | Winner: Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet | Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-04-30 | 48 | 47 | 44 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 47 | 39 |
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | 48 | 46 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 47 | 41 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca +10pp 36→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Spartak Office Shoes +9pp 37→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Dubai Basketball +5pp 42→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Spartak Office Shoes −4pp 46→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca −3pp 42→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for which team will win the ABA League, a top professional basketball competition in the Balkans. The 44% aggregate figure masks a significant divergence between markets: Kalshi shows minimal activity at 3%, while Polymarket's 14 contracts cluster around 46%, with Mega, FMP, Budućnost, and Zadar all priced nearly identically. The ABA League season typically concludes in spring, with playoffs and finals determining the champion. Resolution depends on actual tournament outcomes and contract specifications across venues. Low trading volumes on most contracts suggest limited recent interest, which can make probabilities less reliable as real-time indicators of informed opinion.

### Key factors

- Polymarket's 14 contracts drive the aggregated probability, while Kalshi's single contract at 3% has minimal influence on the overall figure
- Four separate winner contracts on Polymarket are priced within 1 percentage point (46-47¢), suggesting either uncertainty between teams or incomplete market differentiation
- Trading volume is extremely low across most contracts ($0-17 in 24 hours), indicating thin liquidity that may not reflect sustained informed trading
- Kalshi and Polymarket's 43-percentage-point gap indicates either different contract definitions, customer bases, or information sets between the two venues
- The near-identical pricing of multiple distinct team outcomes suggests traders may be arbitraging across contracts rather than making fundamental probability assessments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aba-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aba-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.