# KD Ilirija vs KK FMP Belgrade Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 8 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/abagame
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.124Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KK Buducnost Voli | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fc-universitatea-cluj-vs-kk-buducnost-voli-winner-kalshi-kxabagame-26may121400uncbud-bud |
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fc-universitatea-cluj-vs-kk-buducnost-voli-winner-kalshi-kxabagame-26may121400uncbud-unc |
| KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kk-crvena-zvezda-belgrade-vs-kk-cedevita-olimpija-kalshi-kxabagame-26may121300czvceo-ceo |
| KK Crvena zvezda Belgrade | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kk-crvena-zvezda-belgrade-vs-kk-cedevita-olimpija-kalshi-kxabagame-26may121300czvceo-czv |
| Spartak Subotica | 18¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dubai-basketball-vs-spartak-subotica-winner-sparta-kalshi-kxabagame-26may101430dubsps-sps |
| Dubai Basketball | 72¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dubai-basketball-vs-spartak-subotica-winner-dubai-kalshi-kxabagame-26may101430dubsps-dub |
| KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo | 13¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kk-partizan-belgrade-vs-kk-bosna-royal-sarajevo-wi-kalshi-kxabagame-26may101100kpbbos-bos |
| KK Partizan Belgrade | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kk-partizan-belgrade-vs-kk-bosna-royal-sarajevo-wi-kalshi-kxabagame-26may101100kpbbos-kpb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 21 |
| 2026-05-09 | 10 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Dubai Basketball +15pp 15→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo +14pp 5→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Spartak Subotica +5pp 9→14¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/abagame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=abagame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.