# Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/abnb
Updated: 2026-05-08T18:50:15.207Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Leader: above 140 million at 97%
- Runner-up: above 130 million at 97%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above 140 million | 97¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-140-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-140000000 |
| above 130 million | 97¢ | −1pp | $907 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-130-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-130000000 |
| above 145 million | 95¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-145-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-145000000 |
| above 150 million | 92¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-150-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-150000000 |
| above 155 million | 74¢ | −15pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-155-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-155000000 |
| above 135 million | 60¢ | −9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-135-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-135000000 |
| above 160 million | 13¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-160-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnb-26aprneb-160000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | above 140 million | above 130 million | above 145 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 92 | — | 91 |
| 2026-04-10 | 98 | 98 | 95 |
| 2026-04-20 | — | 97 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 96 |
| 2026-04-26 | 98 | — | 96 |
| 2026-04-30 | 99 | 99 | 96 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 98 |
| 2026-05-07 | 97 | 98 | 96 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · above 155 million −15pp 60→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · above 135 million −9pp 99→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · above 155 million +6pp 54→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · above 160 million +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above 150 million +3pp 89→92¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 93% probability indicates traders believe Airbnb will report more than 150 million nights and experiences booked in Q1 2026, with only a 7% chance of reporting 150 million or fewer. The high confidence reflects Airbnb's consistent historical booking volumes and the platform's recovery trajectory post-pandemic. However, the probability hinges on two competing dynamics: seasonal strength in Q1 travel demand typically supports higher bookings, while macroeconomic pressures on consumer spending could dampen growth. The resolution depends entirely on Airbnb's official Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, which will provide the definitive booking volume figure. Until that disclosure, traders are pricing in the base case that current booking trends continue without significant market disruption.

### Key factors

- Airbnb's Q1 2023-2025 booking volumes exceeded 150 million nights in most periods, establishing a historical baseline for performance
- Q1 typically sees elevated travel demand due to spring break and Easter holiday seasonality, structurally supporting higher booking volumes
- Consumer discretionary spending trends and global macroeconomic conditions in early 2026 will determine whether booking growth accelerates, stagnates, or contracts
- The probability spread (93% vs. 7%) suggests material but not overwhelming uncertainty, implying traders see downside risk from economic weakness but not as the base case
- The runner-up contract at 54% (above 155 million) reflects meaningful optionality that booking volumes could fall between 150-155 million, indicating tighter margins than the headline probability suggests

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/abnb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=abnb

## License

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