# Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 565 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026

> Above 565 million leads at 79%, runner-up 64% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/abnba
Updated: 2026-08-27T08:20:50.610Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-13

## Headline

- Leader: Above 565 million at 79%
- Runner-up: Above 570 million at 64%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 565 million | 79¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-565-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-565000000 |
| Above 570 million | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-570-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-570000000 |
| Above 575 million | 31¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-575-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-575000000 |
| Above 580 million | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-580-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-580000000 |
| Above 585 million | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-585-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-585000000 |
| Above 590 million | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-590-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-590000000 |
| Above 595 million | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-595-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-595000000 |
| Above 600 million | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-airbnb-inc-report-above-600-million-nights-ex-kalshi-kxabnba-27febneb-600000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 565 million | Above 570 million | Above 575 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 67 | 54 | 32 |
| 2026-08-13 | 79 | 64 | 31 |
| 2026-08-20 | 79 | 64 | 32 |
| 2026-08-26 | 79 | 64 | 37 |
| 2026-08-27 | 79 | 64 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 565 million +29pp 50→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 570 million +21pp 43→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 575 million +12pp 20→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 580 million +7pp 12→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 575 million +3pp 32→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing in slightly better-than-even odds that Airbnb will report at least 565 million nights and experiences booked in fiscal 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about post-pandemic travel demand sustainability and Airbnb's ability to grow bookings amid potential economic headwinds and increased competition in the short-term rental market. The contract pricing suggests meaningful probability distributed across higher thresholds (570M, 575M, 580M), indicating traders see material upside scenarios but view anything above 580 million as unlikely. Resolution depends on Airbnb's fiscal 2026 earnings report, typically released in early 2027, which will provide definitive booking volume data. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting leisure and business travel, regulatory changes in major markets, and Airbnb's success in expanding international bookings and experiences revenue.

### Key factors

- Airbnb's 2025 year-to-date booking trends and guidance for remaining fiscal 2026 months
- Macro indicators: consumer spending patterns, employment levels, and travel spending forecasts through end of fiscal 2026
- Regulatory developments in major markets (Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific) affecting platform availability and pricing
- Competitive pressure and market share shifts from traditional hotels and alternative platforms
- Airbnb's historical growth rate (565M would represent ~15% growth from 2025 if prior year was ~490M)

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/abnba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=abnba

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.