# Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)

> O/U 1.5 leads at 74%, runner-up 54% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-markets-cs
Updated: 2026-05-04T01:35:49.616Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 74%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 54%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 74¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x4a9cea80bdc446048226a183870a59750f582f14c8f29f1c4634743193e4f5f4 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x3760860d50243405f52ebd806b1a3ef70a932c0dfaa01db8b1282514a03686e3 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xcdb8fe0b21ea323726b72ece8dcc0d30833ef8024499592b6636fb44338544e4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xc7befbe440ede25371adc8b78ebabaa40aa67d60eccbd7552d804e073947da6f |
| Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) | 17¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x4a12042216de3e5aae5cd32778902b842db86baf2cf7171b9e5651f34bdd15f7 |
| CS Cienciano (-1.5) | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x9c88781673f99b1adbeed2763c6d18ddb6c360f7f54f334402520facc88f2195 |
| Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5) | 13¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xfe442ee170c5214e6c6951ef7949afd2834cfd0079dac5801f9fd9f8a1a9dd9c |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x57efa30b3c2f0e8a06f15a8aacc77ba0ad4aebf88d388bec3b4af0b81e84fc4b |
| CS Cienciano (-2.5) | 11¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xd9e4b92d6364a2d290c171bbd83fb1f7ff5dde8d7ea0a9ece7b597be09c654cc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 50 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 74 | 54 | 27 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5) +10pp 13→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · CS Cienciano (-2.5) +8pp 11→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 −5pp 18→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +4pp 50→54¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market represents the probability that CS Cienciano will lose to Academia Puerto Cabello by more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match. At 32%, the current odds suggest this is viewed as a relatively unlikely outcome, though not negligible. The probability reflects differing team strengths, recent form, and home-field advantage. Factors pushing the probability higher would include Cienciano's defensive vulnerabilities or Academia's recent offensive performance; factors lowering it would be Cienciano establishing control through possession or Academia's defensive lapses. The key catalyst is the scheduled match itself, which will definitively resolve whether Cienciano loses by 2+ goals. The modest trading volume across venues ($31 24-hour volume on the direct contract) and the 3-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggest limited liquidity and some residual disagreement among market participants on the precise probability.

### Key factors

- CS Cienciano's current league position, recent goal differential, and away-match performance history versus Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello's home-field record and recent offensive output, particularly in matches against stronger opponents
- Head-to-head historical results between the two teams and whether either has a pattern of large-margin victories or defeats
- Injury status, suspensions, or roster changes for key players on either team that would affect defensive or attacking capability
- Market liquidity and contract volume remain low relative to higher-traffic sports betting markets, suggesting limited professional arbitrage activity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-markets-cs

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