# Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 74%, runner-up 54% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-04T01:50:49.159Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 74%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 54%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 74¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x4a9cea80bdc446048226a183870a59750f582f14c8f29f1c4634743193e4f5f4 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x3760860d50243405f52ebd806b1a3ef70a932c0dfaa01db8b1282514a03686e3 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xcdb8fe0b21ea323726b72ece8dcc0d30833ef8024499592b6636fb44338544e4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xc7befbe440ede25371adc8b78ebabaa40aa67d60eccbd7552d804e073947da6f |
| CS Cienciano (-1.5) | 19¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x9c88781673f99b1adbeed2763c6d18ddb6c360f7f54f334402520facc88f2195 |
| Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) | 17¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x4a12042216de3e5aae5cd32778902b842db86baf2cf7171b9e5651f34bdd15f7 |
| CS Cienciano (-2.5) | 14¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xd9e4b92d6364a2d290c171bbd83fb1f7ff5dde8d7ea0a9ece7b597be09c654cc |
| Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5) | 13¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xfe442ee170c5214e6c6951ef7949afd2834cfd0079dac5801f9fd9f8a1a9dd9c |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x57efa30b3c2f0e8a06f15a8aacc77ba0ad4aebf88d388bec3b4af0b81e84fc4b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 50 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 74 | 54 | 27 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5) +10pp 13→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · CS Cienciano (-2.5) +8pp 11→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 −5pp 18→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +4pp 50→54¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that more prediction markets will be created for an Academia Puerto Cabello versus CS Cienciano match. At 32%, the market is pricing in a modest but meaningful chance of additional contracts beyond those already available. The current level reflects the relatively low trading volume in existing contracts ($31 in 24-hour volume) and moderate interest across venues. Market depth typically depends on fixture visibility and timing—matches in higher-profile leagues or scheduled for specific dates attract more market creation. The fixture date and league prominence will be the primary factors determining whether additional markets materialize. Markets typically expand around major events or when fixtures gain media attention, particularly if initial contracts show sustained trading activity or volatility.

### Key factors

- Current 24-hour volume on the Academia Puerto Cabello contract is $31, substantially lower than leading contracts ($265 in the FC Seoul matchup), suggesting limited demand for related markets
- The 3-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (32%) and Kalshi (29%) indicates modest disagreement about market expansion likelihood, with relatively tight cross-venue consensus
- Match prominence in South American football determines whether market operators view the fixture as worth deploying additional contract variations or alternative settlement mechanisms
- The number of existing contracts (17 on Polymarket, 3 on Kalshi) establishes whether market operators have already saturated coverage or see room for specialized variants
- Fixture scheduling and confirmed kickoff date determine whether new markets open pre-match or remain unlikely if timing is uncertain or imminent

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.