# Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano

> Academia Puerto Cabello leads at 45%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano
Updated: 2026-05-04T01:35:58.279Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Academia Puerto Cabello at 45%
- Runner-up: Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 45¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-academia-p-polymarket-0xe3e33b815520ed1d71e9692af242326afe7d587c4666d9647a80ae66e41c3545 |
| Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano) | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-draw-acade-polymarket-0x5148d09f9912dcc3097d85cfbf0d0496c7619eeb5456cc0a5f17b3152f15bf9f |
| CS Cienciano | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-cs-ciencia-polymarket-0x1b0f429a92048466a2dd954934acb0974c5129304516d4a91b25a9c45a5bce64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Academia Puerto Cabello | Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano) | CS Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 30 | 28 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | — | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 | 29 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 74% probability reflects market expectations that the Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano match will produce more than 1.5 total goals. The pricing is driven primarily by differing venue assessments: Polymarket contracts average 31% implied probability for outcomes, while Kalshi contracts show 29%, suggesting modest disagreement on match dynamics. The gap between contract types indicates uncertainty around team attacking patterns and defensive setup. With $31 in daily volume on the direct CS Cienciano winner contract (priced at 28¢), the market shows active interest but limited consensus on the final result. The match outcome itself—scheduled to resolve the winner-take-all contracts—represents the primary catalyst that will clarify whether goals or defensive play dominate.

### Key factors

- Polymarket's O/U 1.5 contract is priced at 74¢, representing the highest implied probability among all outcomes, suggesting market consensus leans toward a higher-scoring match
- CS Cienciano's direct win contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket ($31 24h volume), matching draw probability exactly at 28¢, indicating near-even odds between those two outcomes
- Only $31 in 24-hour volume exists on the main winner market across all venues, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for repricing if new information emerges
- Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) contract trades at 16¢, the lowest probability of all outcomes, indicating market expectation of either a close match or CS Cienciano victory
- Both Teams to Score contract sits at 54¢, reflecting meaningful probability that offensive play from both sides occurs despite the high O/U 1.5 expectation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano

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