# 2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Female Artist of the Year

> Ella Langley leads at 81%, runner-up 5% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/acmafaoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.653Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Ella Langley at 81%
- Runner-up: Lainey Wilson at 5%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $41

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Langley | 81¢ | −5pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/2026-academy-of-country-music-award-for-female-art-kalshi-kxacmafaoty-68-ell |
| Lainey Wilson | 5¢ | −10pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/2026-academy-of-country-music-award-for-female-art-kalshi-kxacmafaoty-68-lai |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ella Langley | Lainey Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 19 | 38 |
| 2026-04-25 | 34 | 53 |
| 2026-05-02 | 75 | 16 |
| 2026-05-06 | 88 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 83 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Ella Langley +11pp 77→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Lainey Wilson −10pp 15→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Ella Langley −5pp 88→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Ella Langley +4pp 71→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Lainey Wilson −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The current 76% probability suggests strong market confidence that Ella Langley will win the 2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Female Artist of the Year, based on available information as of early May 2026. This reflects her perceived lead in visibility, streaming performance, and industry recognition relative to competitors like Lainey Wilson at 11%. The probability level indicates meaningful uncertainty remains—roughly 1-in-4 chance an alternative winner emerges. The main drivers are Ella Langley's recent chart performance and award nominations, weighed against other nominees' promotional momentum and late-year industry campaigning. The ACM Awards ceremony in September 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome. Until then, major shifts could result from unexpected chart dominance, viral moments, or voting bloc preferences within the country music industry.

### Key factors

- Ella Langley's streaming and radio performance metrics relative to other nominees through spring 2026
- Number and timing of award nominations and wins Ella Langley receives from other voting bodies (CMT, CMA, Grammy) between now and September
- Strength of competing nominees' chart positions and industry momentum in summer 2026
- ACM voting eligibility and historical patterns in Female Artist category outcomes
- Contract liquidity and trading volume ($51-63 in 24h vol) suggesting moderate market confidence rather than consensus certainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/acmafaoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=acmafaoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.