# Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 10 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/actorsonnycrockett
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.262Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2035-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Powell | 17¢ | −4pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-glen-powell-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vice-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-gle |
| Ryan Gosling | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-gosling-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vice-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-rya |
| Oscar Isaac | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oscar-isaac-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vice-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-osc |
| Jake Gyllenhaal | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jake-gyllenhaal-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-v-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-jak |
| Pedro Pascal | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pedro-pascal-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vice-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-ped |
| Miles Teller | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miles-teller-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vice-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-mil |
| Taylor Kitsch | 8¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-kitsch-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vic-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-tay |
| Tom Hardy | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-hardy-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vice-to-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-tom |
| Richard Madden | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-madden-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-vi-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-ric |
| Garrett Hedlund | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-garrett-hedlund-be-casted-in-the-next-miami-v-kalshi-kxactorsonnycrockett-35-gar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 14 |
| 2026-04-25 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 9 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Glen Powell −7pp 22→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Taylor Kitsch −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Glen Powell −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Ryan Gosling −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 7% chance that Ryan Gosling will be cast in a new Miami Vice film. The probability reflects the current lack of confirmed casting information for any such project. Two primary factors shape this assessment: whether a Miami Vice remake or reboot is formally greenlit by a studio and moving through active casting, and whether Gosling—who has a selective approach to film roles—would be interested in and available for the project. The single biggest catalyst would be official studio announcement of a Miami Vice project in active development with a confirmed director and timeline, which would clarify whether casting discussions have begun. Without such confirmation, the market reflects the baseline uncertainty of predicting any specific actor's involvement in a hypothetical future film.

### Key factors

- No confirmed Miami Vice remake or reboot project has been publicly announced as of May 2026
- Gosling typically commits to 1-2 films annually and maintains selective project choices
- An official studio greenlight with director attached would be required to make casting discussions material and observable
- Gosling's recent filmography and stated preferences would need to align with the tone and creative vision of any new Miami Vice project
- Previous Miami Vice adaptations and reboots have faced production delays or cancellations, affecting baseline probability of the project occurring at all

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/actorsonnycrockett
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=actorsonnycrockett

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