# ADP employment change in Nov 2026

> Above -25000 leads at 87%, runner-up 87% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/adp
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.499Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-02

## Headline

- Leader: Above -25000 at 87%
- Runner-up: Above -25000 at 87%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $201

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 87¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-25000-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t-25000 |
| Above -25000 | 87¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-oct-2026-above-25000-kalshi-kxadp-26oct-t-25000 |
| Above -25000 | 82¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-sep-2026-above-25000-kalshi-kxadp-26sep-t-25000 |
| Above 0 | 79¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-oct-2026-above-0-kalshi-kxadp-26oct-t0 |
| Above 0 | 72¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-0-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t0 |
| Above 25000 | 70¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-oct-2026-above-25000-kalshi-kxadp-26oct-t25000 |
| Above 0 | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-sep-2026-above-0-kalshi-kxadp-26sep-t0 |
| Above 25000 | 57¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-25000-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t25000 |
| Above 50000 | 55¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-oct-2026-above-50000-kalshi-kxadp-26oct-t50000 |
| Above 25000 | 54¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-sep-2026-above-25000-kalshi-kxadp-26sep-t25000 |
| Above 50000 | 53¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-may-2026-above-50000-kalshi-kxadp-26may-t50000 |
| Above 50000 | 33¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-50000-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t50000 |
| Above 75000 | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-oct-2026-above-75000-kalshi-kxadp-26oct-t75000 |
| Above 100000 | 16¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-may-2026-above-100000-kalshi-kxadp-26may-t100000 |
| Above 75000 | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-75000-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t75000 |
| Above 100000 | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-oct-2026-above-100000-kalshi-kxadp-26oct-t100000 |
| Above 125000 | 9¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-may-2026-above-125000-kalshi-kxadp-26may-t125000 |
| Above 125000 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-125000-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t125000 |
| Above 100000 | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/adp-employment-change-in-nov-2026-above-100000-kalshi-kxadp-26nov-t100000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -25000 | Above -25000 | Above -25000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 89 | — | — |
| 2026-04-18 | 89 | — | — |
| 2026-04-19 | — | — | 87 |
| 2026-04-20 | 89 | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | — | — | 82 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 87 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Above 50000 +5pp 42→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 50000 +5pp 47→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 100000 +4pp 8→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 100000 +3pp 12→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an extremely high probability that ADP employment changes in November 2026 will remain above -25,000 jobs—meaning essentially flat or positive job growth rather than net losses. This reflects current expectations for labor market resilience. The probability level is driven primarily by baseline economic forecasts showing continued modest hiring, though it could shift if recession indicators or deteriorating leading employment metrics emerge between now and November. The actual ADP employment report for November 2026, typically released in early December, will directly resolve this outcome. Markets assign much lower confidence to stronger hiring scenarios (above 75,000 or 100,000 jobs), suggesting consensus expectations are for tepid rather than robust job creation.

### Key factors

- ADP employment change outcomes for August through October 2026 will establish the trajectory; a series of weak months could reduce confidence in positive November readings
- Initial jobless claims and continuing claims data through fall 2026 will signal labor market tightness; rising claims would pressurize the current high probability downward
- ISM manufacturing and services employment indices leading into November serve as early signals of hiring momentum in the final months of the quarter
- GDP growth forecasts and Fed policy expectations through summer and fall 2026 will shape whether labor market softening is priced into employment numbers
- Historical volatility in ADP payroll reports suggests meaningful forecast uncertainty exists despite current market pricing at 95 percent

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/adp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=adp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.