# Will Nigeria win the Africa Cup of Nations

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 7 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/afcon
Updated: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.380Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-03

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameroon | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameroon-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-camero-kalshi-kxafcon-27-cmr |
| Congo DR | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-congo-dr-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-congo-kalshi-kxafcon-27-cod |
| Egypt | 13¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-egypt-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-egypt-kalshi-kxafcon-27-egy |
| Ghana | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ghana-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-ghana-kalshi-kxafcon-27-gha |
| Morocco | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-morocco-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-morocco-kalshi-kxafcon-27-mar |
| Nigeria | 13¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nigeria-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-nigeria-kalshi-kxafcon-27-ngr |
| Senegal | 24¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-senegal-win-the-africa-cup-of-nations-senegal-kalshi-kxafcon-27-sen |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | 21 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Nigeria will win the Africa Cup of Nations tournament. The market views Nigeria as a clear underdog compared to Morocco (21%) and Ghana (19%), suggesting traders believe other nations have stronger current rosters or form. Nigeria's probability could shift based on team performance in qualifying matches, injury updates to key players, or changes in coaching staff before the tournament. The tournament itself will ultimately resolve this contract when matches are played and a winner is crowned. Traders appear to be pricing in recent competitive trends across African football, though the relatively low trading volume indicates limited liquidity in these contracts and potential uncertainty in market pricing.

### Key factors

- Nigeria's current FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance compared to Morocco and Ghana
- Injury status and availability of Nigeria's key players leading up to the tournament
- Nigeria's qualifying round results and goal differential if tournament qualification is still pending
- Historical head-to-head records between Nigeria and other top African nations in recent years
- Market pricing anomalies—Nigeria at 3¢ while Ghana is 19¢ suggests either strong confidence in Nigeria's weakness or thin liquidity affecting contract valuations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/afcon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=afcon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.