# Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) win at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election

> 36 or more leads at 87%, runner-up 75% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/afdsachsen
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.751Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: 36 or more at 87%
- Runner-up: 38 or more at 75%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $66

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 or more | 87¢ | +50pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alternative-for-germany-afd-win-at-least-36-s-kalshi-kxafdsachsen-26sep06-al36 |
| 38 or more | 75¢ | +54pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alternative-for-germany-afd-win-at-least-38-s-kalshi-kxafdsachsen-26sep06-al38 |
| 40 or more | 59¢ | +31pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alternative-for-germany-afd-win-at-least-40-s-kalshi-kxafdsachsen-26sep06-al40 |
| 42 or more | 39¢ | +23pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-alternative-for-germany-afd-win-at-least-42-s-kalshi-kxafdsachsen-26sep06-al42 |
| 44 or more | 26¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alternative-for-germany-afd-win-at-least-44-s-kalshi-kxafdsachsen-26sep06-al44 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 36 or more | 38 or more | 40 or more |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 38 | 22 | 28 |
| 2026-07-10 | 88 | 76 | 59 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · 38 or more +54pp 22→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · 36 or more +50pp 38→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · 40 or more +31pp 28→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · 42 or more +23pp 19→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · 44 or more +16pp 14→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are assigning an 88% probability that Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) will secure at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election. This reflects strong polling performance for the party in that eastern German state, where it has consistently polled above 30% in recent surveys. The probability hinges on whether AfD maintains its current regional support levels through election day and whether polling accuracy holds. The main uncertainty involves potential coalition dynamics, campaign shifts, or changes in voter sentiment in the final months before voting. The election outcome will be determined on the scheduled Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election date, which will provide definitive seat counts and resolve all related contracts. Contract pricing suggests increasing uncertainty at higher seat thresholds—44+ seats trade at only 30%, indicating consensus around a narrower mid-range outcome.

### Key factors

- AfD has consistently polled above 30% in Saxony-Anhalt, making 36+ seats (typically 10-12% of the 97-seat chamber) a low threshold relative to recent vote share
- The 88% probability for 36+ seats versus 59% for 40+ seats indicates markets expect the party to land in the 36-39 seat range rather than exceed 42 seats
- Regional polling methodology and turnout assumptions carry material risk; eastern German elections show different dynamics than national polls
- Coalition formation rules and potential party alliances could affect whether AfD seat count translates to actual legislative influence
- The scheduled Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election date is the sole resolution event; no interim data releases will clarify the outcome before votes are cast

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/afdsachsen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=afdsachsen
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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