# Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 16 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aflgame
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:50.388Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-22

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Blues | 12¢ | +6pp | $547 | kalshi | /markets/carlton-blues-vs-brisbane-lions-winner-carlton-blu-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may080530cfcbri-cfc |
| West Coast Eagles | 8¢ | — | $262 | kalshi | /markets/west-coast-eagles-vs-melbourne-demons-winner-west-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may092310wcemel-wce |
| Fremantle Dockers | 51¢ | +40pp | $154 | kalshi | /markets/hawthorn-hawks-vs-fremantle-dockers-winner-fremant-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may070610hawfre-fre |
| Sydney Swans | 72¢ | +21pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/sydney-swans-vs-north-melbourne-kangaroos-winner-s-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may082315sydnmk-syd |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 43¢ | −1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/hawthorn-hawks-vs-fremantle-dockers-winner-hawthor-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may070610hawfre-haw |
| North Melbourne Kangaroos | 20¢ | +11pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/sydney-swans-vs-north-melbourne-kangaroos-winner-n-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may082315sydnmk-nmk |
| Western Bulldogs | 48¢ | +36pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/western-bulldogs-vs-port-adelaide-power-winner-wes-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may080610bulpap-bul |
| Melbourne Demons | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/west-coast-eagles-vs-melbourne-demons-winner-melbo-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may092310wcemel-mel |
| Collingwood Magpies | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/collingwood-magpies-vs-geelong-cats-winner-colling-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may090535colgee-col |
| Geelong Cats | 61¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/collingwood-magpies-vs-geelong-cats-winner-geelong-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may090535colgee-gee |
| St Kilda Saints | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/st-kilda-saints-vs-gold-coast-suns-winner-st-kilda-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may090510sksgcs-sks |
| Gold Coast Suns | 60¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/st-kilda-saints-vs-gold-coast-suns-winner-gold-coa-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may090510sksgcs-gcs |
| Essendon Bombers | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/essendon-bombers-vs-gws-giants-winner-essendon-bom-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may090215essgws-ess |
| GWS Giants | 87¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/essendon-bombers-vs-gws-giants-winner-gws-giants-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may090215essgws-gws |
| Port Adelaide Power | 45¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/western-bulldogs-vs-port-adelaide-power-winner-por-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may080610bulpap-pap |
| Brisbane Lions | 84¢ | +70pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/carlton-blues-vs-brisbane-lions-winner-brisbane-li-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may080530cfcbri-bri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Brisbane Lions +70pp 13→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Fremantle Dockers +40pp 10→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Hawthorn Hawks +37pp 8→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Western Bulldogs +36pp 11→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Sydney Swans +21pp 7→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 47% probability indicates that Carlton Blues are considered roughly even-odds favorites to defeat Fremantle Dockers in their upcoming match. The market assessment reflects both teams' current form, recent matchup history, and squad availability heading into the fixture. Carlton's probability could move higher if key players return from injury or if recent momentum shifts in their favor; conversely, it could decline if Fremantle demonstrates stronger preparation or if Carlton faces unexpected absences. The outcome will be definitively resolved when the match concludes. Market pricing appears influenced by limited trading volume on this specific matchup, with only $294 in 24-hour volume across related contracts, suggesting relatively thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than high-volume markets.

### Key factors

- Recent head-to-head record and performance differential between Carlton and Fremantle in the current season
- Player availability and injury status for both teams leading up to the fixture date
- Home-ground advantage and venue-specific performance patterns for each team
- Current ladder position and win-loss momentum entering the match
- Trading volume and liquidity on this contract versus related AFL fixtures, which may indicate information gaps or market efficiency constraints

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aflgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aflgame

## License

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