# Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 5 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/africaleaderout
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.066Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2035-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Félix Tshisekedi | 4¢ | +6pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-flix-tshisekedi-leave-office-next-in-this-set-kalshi-kxafricaleaderout-35-ft |
| William Ruto | 5¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-ruto-leave-office-next-in-this-set-wi-kalshi-kxafricaleaderout-35-wr |
| Bola Tinubu | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bola-tinubu-leave-office-next-in-this-set-bol-kalshi-kxafricaleaderout-35-bt |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emmerson-mnangagwa-leave-office-next-in-this-kalshi-kxafricaleaderout-35-em |
| John Mahama | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-mahama-leave-office-next-in-this-set-joh-kalshi-kxafricaleaderout-35-jm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 7 |
| 2026-06-05 | 17 |
| 2026-06-11 | 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | 18 |
| 2026-06-23 | 12 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Félix Tshisekedi +6pp 1→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 20% probability represents the market's assessment that Nigerian President Bola Tinubu will be the next person to leave office among a specific set of political figures. The relatively low probability suggests markets view his departure as unlikely in the near term. Key factors influencing this estimate include Tinubu's recent inauguration in May 2023, giving him a normal full term ahead, and the stability of Nigeria's current political institutions. The probability would increase if significant health concerns emerged, major political instability occurred, or constitutional crises threatened his presidency. Resolution depends on whether Tinubu completes his term or exits office before other tracked figures, with the most immediate comparison being other sitting leaders' political fortunes.

### Key factors

- Tinubu took office in May 2023 and constitutionally serves until May 2027, providing structural stability relative to other tracked figures
- Nigeria's political system has seen peaceful transfers of power recently, suggesting institutional continuity absent major shocks
- Tinubu faced health speculation during his campaign and early presidency; any documented medical emergencies would likely move markets upward
- Economic conditions in Nigeria, particularly inflation and currency pressures, could destabilize his government if they severely worsen
- The baseline comparison set matters: if other figures face imminent political challenges, Tinubu's relative probability would shift even without changes to his own circumstances

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/africaleaderout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=africaleaderout

## License

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