# Will USAID be eliminated

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/agencyelim
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.433Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USAID | 37¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-usaid-be-eliminated-usaid-kalshi-kxagencyelim-29-usaid |
| EPA | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-epa-be-eliminated-epa-kalshi-kxagencyelim-29-epa |
| IRS | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-irs-be-eliminated-irs-kalshi-kxagencyelim-29-irs |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 40 |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 |
| 2026-04-30 | 37 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will be formally eliminated or cease operations. At 19%, the market suggests elimination is possible but not the central expectation. Key drivers include ongoing political discussions about foreign aid spending and administrative restructuring proposals. The primary uncertainty centers on legislative action and executive policy decisions that would be required to dismantle the agency. Congressional appropriations cycles and statements from relevant officials would provide the most direct resolution signals. The current level reflects political debate intensity balanced against institutional inertia and the practical complexity of eliminating a large federal agency.

### Key factors

- Congressional legislation would be required to formally eliminate USAID, making legislative outcomes and party composition in coming sessions critical indicators
- Recent budget proposals and statements from executive branch officials regarding USAID's future form the immediate political baseline
- Historical precedent shows major federal agency eliminations are rare and typically require sustained bipartisan or single-party supermajority support
- Any restructuring short of formal elimination (such as reorganization, budget cuts, or consolidation into other agencies) would not resolve this contract positively
- International diplomatic and development policy priorities, as reflected in official statements and proposed alternatives, indicate relative political appetite for foreign aid functions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/agencyelim
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=agencyelim

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.