# Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2031 leads at 69%, runner-up 68% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/agico
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.320Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2031 at 69%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2030 at 68%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $170

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 69¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-30 |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 68¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-29 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-28q4 |
| Before Oct 1, 2028 | 59¢ | +2pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-28q3 |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 56¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-28q2 |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-28q1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 45¢ | +1pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-27q4 |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-27q3 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 32¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-27q2 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-27q1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-26q4 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-26q3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2031 | Before Jan 1, 2030 | Before Jan 1, 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 64 | 60 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | — | 67 | 58 |
| 2026-05-25 | 71 | 69 | 61 |
| 2026-05-31 | 69 | — | 62 |
| 2026-06-04 | — | 68 | 62 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 68 | 62 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Before Jul 1, 2028 −5pp 56→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before Jul 1, 2028 +5pp 51→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that any company will publicly declare it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence by October 1, 2026—roughly five months from now. At 33%, the market reflects skepticism that such an announcement is imminent, despite recent advances in large language models and AI capabilities. The current level reflects uncertainty about whether companies will claim AGI has been achieved versus achieved and deployed. Upward pressure would come from rapid capability breakthroughs or companies adopting a lower threshold for what constitutes AGI. Downward pressure stems from the lack of consensus definition for AGI and companies' historical reluctance to make definitive claims about achieving it. The main uncertainty driver is whether any organization—whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or others—will make an explicit public announcement meeting the contract's criteria, as opposed to quietly advancing toward such capabilities.

### Key factors

- No company has yet publicly announced achieving AGI as of May 2026, despite sustained AI capability improvements
- The contract requires a formal announcement by a named company, not merely reaching technical capabilities behind closed doors
- Industry leaders have generally avoided claiming AGI achievement, instead using terms like 'advanced AI' or 'frontier models'
- The five-month timeframe is relatively short for such a transformative claim to move from internal assessment to public announcement
- Market prices for the October 2026 contract (33%) versus October 2027 contract (36%) show minimal probability shift despite a full additional year

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/agico
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=agico

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.