# Will AI be regulated?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 9 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ai-regulation
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.156Z
Category: legislation · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-04

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $30K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok | 8¢ | +2pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-grok-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-xai |
| Claude | 63¢ | −1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-claude-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-a |
| ChatGPT | 13¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-chatgpt-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-oai |
| Gemini | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/best-ai-in-dec-2026-gemini-kalshi-kxllm1-26dec31-goog |
| Yes | 7¢ | −7pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-imposes-liability-for-damage-kalshi-kxnyaibill-27jan01 |
| Before 2027 | 18¢ | −1pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-prohibits-members-of-congres-kalshi-kxstockbanhouse-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 4, 2027 | 13¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-bill-that-restricts-snap-benefits-become-la-kalshi-kxsnaprestrict-27-jan04 |
| By Jan 1, 2027 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ai-regulation-by-2027-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxailegislation-27-jan01 |
| Before July 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-prohibits-members-of-congres-kalshi-kxstockbanhouse-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |
| 2026-05-25 | 28 |
| 2026-06-01 | 26 |
| 2026-06-08 | 23 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Yes −37pp 70→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Yes −19pp 33→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Yes −11pp 81→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Yes +8pp 73→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Yes −7pp 14→7¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ai-regulation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ai-regulation
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.