# Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

> Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?: Above 300.0ㅤ leads at 84%, runner-up 75% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/airfarecpi
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.329Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?: Above 300.0ㅤ at 84%
- Runner-up: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 302.0ㅤ?: Above 302.0ㅤ at 75%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?: Above 300.0ㅤ | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t300.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 302.0ㅤ?: Above 302.0ㅤ | 75¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t302.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t298.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t304.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 308.0ㅤ?: Above 308.0ㅤ | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t308.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 310.0ㅤ?: Above 310.0ㅤ | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t310.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 318.0ㅤ?: Above 318.0ㅤ | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t318.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 306.0ㅤ?: Above 306.0ㅤ | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t306.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 312.0ㅤ?: Above 312.0ㅤ | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t312.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 314.0ㅤ?: Above 314.0ㅤ | 4¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t314.0 |
| Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 316.0ㅤ?: Above 316.0ㅤ | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxairfarecpi-26jul14-t316.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?: Above 300.0ㅤ | Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 302.0ㅤ?: Above 302.0ㅤ | Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 69 | 53 | 62 |
| 2026-06-11 | 75 | 72 | 88 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 76 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 84 | 75 | 51 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 65 |
| 2026-06-26 | 84 | 75 | 51 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ −32pp 83→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ +18pp 65→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 310.0ㅤ?: Above 310.0ㅤ −18pp 34→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ +14pp 51→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 81% probability indicates that prediction-market traders expect airline fares in the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers to exceed 304.0 in April 2026. The contract pricing reflects broader expectations about travel demand and fuel costs heading into spring. The primary driver appears to be seasonal airline pricing patterns, where spring and summer typically see elevated fares due to increased leisure travel demand. The resolution date is April 2026, meaning the outcome depends on actual CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early May 2026. The high probability suggests traders view airline fares exceeding this threshold as the base case, though the significant gap between the 61-cent top contract and 95-cent lower thresholds indicates some uncertainty about how far above 304.0 fares might climb. Factors that could shift this include fuel price volatility, airline capacity decisions, and changes in consumer travel patterns heading into the summer season.

### Key factors

- Seasonal airline pricing historically peaks in April-May, making elevated fares a typical outcome
- Jet fuel prices and global oil markets significantly influence airline pricing power and final fares
- The top contract (above 304.0) trades at 61¢ versus 95¢ for thresholds at 282-288, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the upper bound
- Consumer travel demand in spring 2026 depends on economic conditions and employment trends in early 2026
- BLS will release April 2026 CPI airline fares data in early May 2026, definitively resolving this contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/airfarecpi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=airfarecpi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.