# Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akdropoutaug
Updated: 2026-08-26T19:20:52.954Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $823

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 3¢ | −2pp | $821 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-kreiss-tomkins-drop-out-of-the-alask-kalshi-kxakdropoutaug-26-jkre |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 15¢ | +5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-j-sullivan-jr-drop-out-of-the-alaska-u-kalshi-kxakdropoutaug-26-dsuljr |
| Dave Bronson | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dave-bronson-drop-out-of-the-alaska-governor-kalshi-kxakdropoutaug-26-dbro |
| David B. Leslie | 17¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-b-leslie-drop-out-of-the-alaska-us-sena-kalshi-kxakdropoutaug-26-dles |
| Tom Begich | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-begich-drop-out-of-the-alaska-governor-ra-kalshi-kxakdropoutaug-26-tbeg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 23 |
| 2026-08-24 | 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | 16 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · David B. Leslie −17pp 27→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Dave Bronson −9pp 19→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. −7pp 16→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins −5pp 17→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. +5pp 9→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 28% probability that Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will withdraw from the 2026 Alaska Governor race by September 1st. The current probability reflects that most candidates in Alaska's 2026 races remain in their contests, with only one candidate (Matt Schultz in the House race) showing high dropout likelihood at 93%. Kreiss-Tomkins' position as a Democratic candidate in a competitive gubernatorial race, combined with the approaching September 1st deadline, creates limited time for major campaign developments. The key driver of movement would be significant changes in polling numbers, fundraising capacity, or candidate viability metrics over the next week. The September 1st date represents the final deadline for candidate withdrawals, making it the critical resolution point for this market.

### Key factors

- Eight days remain until September 1st resolution, limiting time for campaign-altering developments or public withdrawals
- Kreiss-Tomkins is positioned as a major Democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race, suggesting organizational infrastructure favoring continuation
- Dropout probability for other major Alaska candidates in 2026 races averages 8-12%, establishing a baseline expectation that candidates remain through early September
- Recent campaign activity, funding status, and polling position relative to other Democratic primary competitors would indicate viability signaling
- No comparable recent Alaska gubernatorial race provides direct precedent for Democratic candidate withdrawal patterns near early September filing deadlines

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akdropoutaug
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=akdropoutaug
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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