# Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%

> Mary Peltola, 0-3% leads at 20%, runner-up 16% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akmov
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.557Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Mary Peltola, 0-3% at 20%
- Runner-up: Dan Sullivan, 0-3% at 16%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $105

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, 0-3% | 20¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mary-peltola-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-mpel-p1 |
| Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-dan-sullivan-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-dsul-p1 |
| Mary Peltola, 3-6% | 12¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mary-peltola-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-mpel-p4 |
| Dan Sullivan, 9-12% | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-dan-sullivan-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-dsul-p10 |
| Dan Sullivan, 3-6% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-dan-sullivan-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-dsul-p4 |
| Mary Peltola, 6-9% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mary-peltola-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-mpel-p7 |
| Mary Peltola, 9-12% | 3¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mary-peltola-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-mpel-p10 |
| Dan Sullivan, 6-9% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-dan-sullivan-in-the-kalshi-kxakmov-aksenate26nov03-dsul-p7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mary Peltola, 0-3% | Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | Mary Peltola, 3-6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 2026-06-05 | 23 | 15 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 23 | 16 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 15 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 22 | — | — |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-06-18 | 25 | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 16 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 20 | — | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Mary Peltola, 0-3% −5pp 25→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts a 15% chance that Republican Dan Sullivan wins Alaska's 2026 Senate race by a margin between 3% and 6%. Markets currently price a closer outcome as more likely, with Sullivan's 0-3% margin victory at 13% probability. The underlying race appears competitive, with contract pricing suggesting uncertainty about both the winner and final margin. Key drivers include Alaska's recent voting patterns, early polling as the campaign develops, turnout dynamics in a state with historical volatility, and how effectively candidates mobilize their bases. The 2026 general election on November 3rd will ultimately resolve this outcome, though intervening primary results and campaign developments will reshape probabilities throughout the cycle.

### Key factors

- Dan Sullivan's 0-3% margin is priced slightly higher (13¢) than his 3-6% margin (12¢), suggesting markets expect either a decisive Sullivan win or a Peltola victory rather than a narrow Sullivan win
- Mary Peltola's 0-3% margin matches the current headline at 15%, indicating symmetric uncertainty—markets see close outcomes as most probable across multiple candidates
- The 3-6% margin contract shows minimal 24-hour volume ($0) compared to comparable outcomes, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially less refined price discovery in this specific band
- Alaska's recent electoral history includes both large swings (2022 ranked-choice results) and demonstrated ticket-splitting, making margin prediction volatile relative to winner prediction
- Markets assign only 5¢ probability to Sullivan winning by more than 12%, suggesting forecasters expect the race to tighten from any current state rather than diverge significantly

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=akmov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.