# Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,750

> Above $750 leads at 93%, runner-up 76% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akpfd
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:50.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-20

## Headline

- Leader: Above $750 at 93%
- Runner-up: Above $1,000 at 76%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $555

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $750 | 93¢ | +1pp | $555 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend-a-kalshi-kxakpfd-27sep20-t750 |
| Above $1,000 | 76¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend-a-kalshi-kxakpfd-27sep20-t1000 |
| Above $1,250 | 53¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend-a-kalshi-kxakpfd-27sep20-t1250 |
| Above $1,500 | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend-a-kalshi-kxakpfd-27sep20-t1500 |
| Above $1,750 | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-official-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend-a-kalshi-kxakpfd-27sep20-t1750 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $750 | Above $1,000 | Above $1,250 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 92 | 80 | 52 |
| 2026-08-26 | — | 75 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — | 78 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | 51 |
| 2026-09-12 | — | 78 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 93 | 76 | 53 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) for 2027 is projected to exceed $1,750 with 6% probability according to current market prices, reflecting skepticism about dividend payments reaching that threshold. The PFD amount depends primarily on the fund's investment returns and the statutory calculation formula that distributes a portion of the fund's realized earnings. Market prices suggest traders expect the 2027 dividend to land between $750–$1,250, with high confidence it will exceed $750. The dividend amount will be officially announced in late 2026 or early 2027 based on the fund's performance through the prior fiscal year, making historical returns and current market conditions the critical drivers of the final payout level.

### Key factors

- The Alaska Permanent Fund's 2026 market performance and realized returns directly determine the 2027 payout under the statutory formula
- Historical PFD amounts ranged from roughly $1,000–$2,000 depending on fund performance; 2025 payouts were approximately $1,312 per person
- The fund must publish 2027 dividend projections or official amounts in late 2026, creating a concrete resolution date
- Federal and state legislation changes to the PFD formula or distribution rules could alter the payout, though such changes are infrequent
- Oil price volatility and broader equity market conditions between now and the calculation deadline influence the fund's asset base and investment returns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akpfd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=akpfd

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.