# Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 66% across 5 contracts — refreshed 33 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akprimary
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.180Z
Category: legislation · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-05-18

## Headline

- Probability: 66% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hill | 71¢ | +55pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-hill-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxakprimary-26may19-bhil |
| John Brendan Williams | 51¢ | −21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-brendan-williams-qualify-for-the-runoff-kalshi-kxakprimary-26may19-jwil |
| Matthew Schultz | 95¢ | −73pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-schultz-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-kalshi-kxakprimary-26may19-msch |
| Matthew Williams | 17¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-williams-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-th-kalshi-kxakprimary-26may19-mwil |
| Nicholas Begich | 94¢ | +45pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicholas-begich-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-kalshi-kxakprimary-26may19-nbeg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 73 |
| 2026-05-20 | 31 |
| 2026-05-28 | 41 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Bill Hill −74pp 92→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Matthew Schultz −73pp 96→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Nicholas Begich −73pp 96→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Bill Hill +55pp 3→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Nicholas Begich +45pp 3→48¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/akprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=akprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.