# Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above

> At least 100 million leads at 85%, runner-up 81% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aksalmon
Updated: 2026-07-10T02:20:48.919Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-14

## Headline

- Leader: At least 100 million at 85%
- Runner-up: At least 105 million at 81%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 100 million | 85¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t100000000 |
| At least 105 million | 81¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t105000000 |
| At least 110 million | 74¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t110000000 |
| At least 115 million | 70¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t115000000 |
| At least 120 million | 61¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t120000000 |
| At least 125 million | 54¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t125000000 |
| At least 130 million | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t130000000 |
| At least 135 million | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t135000000 |
| At least 140 million | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t140000000 |
| At least 145 million | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t145000000 |
| At least 150 million | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaskas-2026-commercial-all-salmon-harvest-to-kalshi-kxaksalmon-26all-t150000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 100 million | At least 105 million | At least 110 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | — | — | 75 |
| 2026-06-11 | 86 | 82 | 75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 86 | 82 | 76 |
| 2026-07-03 | 86 | 82 | 75 |
| 2026-07-08 | 86 | 82 | 75 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 67% probability that Alaska's commercial salmon catch will exceed 110 million fish in 2026. The prediction reflects expectations about ocean conditions, salmon population health, and fishing pressure. Key drivers of the current probability include recent harvest data showing catches in the 100-130 million range over the past decade, with significant year-to-year variation driven by water temperature, returning stock numbers, and regulatory decisions. The market prices suggest traders view a 110+ million harvest as likely but not certain. Final resolution will depend on actual catch data reported by Alaska's Department of Fish and Game, typically available in fall 2026. Ocean conditions during the 2026 fishing season and pre-season population estimates will be critical signals that could shift probabilities notably before the season begins.

### Key factors

- Historical Alaska commercial salmon harvests averaged 105-120 million annually over the past 10 years, establishing the baseline for current probability levels
- The price curve shows declining probability at higher thresholds (67% at 110M, 55% at 120M, 31% at 140M), indicating trader uncertainty about upper-range outcomes
- Pre-season run forecasts released by Alaska fisheries agencies typically in April-May 2026 would provide concrete population estimates that could materially shift market prices
- Ocean temperature and freshwater conditions during spring-summer 2026 directly affect salmon survival rates and migration success, influencing final harvest volumes
- Regulatory harvest limits and in-season adjustments by Alaska fisheries managers can constrain catches regardless of fish availability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aksalmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aksalmon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.