# Will Dustin Darden qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 9 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aksenadvance
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.410Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-08-17

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Darden | 58¢ | −1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-dustin-darden-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-2-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-ddar |
| Carol Hafner | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carol-hafner-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-20-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-chaf |
| Dan J. Sullivan | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-j-sullivan-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-djsul |
| Dan S. Sullivan | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-s-sullivan-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-dssul |
| Fred C. Grauberger | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fred-c-grauberger-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-t-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-fgra |
| Mary Peltola | 94¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mary-peltola-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-20-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-mpel |
| Richard Grayson | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-grayson-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-rgra |
| Sid Hill | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sid-hill-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-2026-a-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-shil |
| William Hunt | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-hunt-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-20-kalshi-kxaksenadvance-26aug18-whun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 34 |
| 2026-06-12 | 43 |
| 2026-06-19 | 94 |
| 2026-06-25 | 30 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Dustin Darden +37pp 21→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Richard Grayson −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Dustin Darden will advance to Alaska's general election runoff in the 2026 Senate race. At 38%, the market suggests Darden is a credible but uncertain contender among multiple candidates competing for one of two runoff spots. The main factors influencing this level include Darden's current standing in polling relative to frontrunners like Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan (who show near-certain probabilities of advancing), as well as donor support and campaign infrastructure. The primary uncertainty catalyst will be the August primary election, when Alaska's ranked-choice voting system determines which two candidates proceed to the general election. Polling data releases and candidate announcements in the coming months will also help clarify the competitive landscape and likely shift expectations.

### Key factors

- Darden's performance relative to top-tier candidates Peltola and Sullivan, whose individual probabilities exceed 90%
- Total number and strength of competing candidates dividing the non-frontrunner vote
- Voter preference patterns in Alaska's ranked-choice primary system, which requires securing sufficient first and secondary preferences
- Polling data releases between now and the August 19, 2026 primary election
- Campaign fundraising and spending relative to other mid-tier candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aksenadvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aksenadvance
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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